tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-50689444398877099762024-03-15T01:35:22.498-07:00Shaken, not stirred!The Volcano DiariesKatharina Unglerthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06321857721854778415noreply@blogger.comBlogger35125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5068944439887709976.post-21410302637631796862017-01-27T09:34:00.000-08:002017-01-27T09:34:20.808-08:00Volcano monitoring from a distanceIn the past few weeks, there has been an eruption that keeps littering my inbox with emails: <a href="http://volcano.si.edu/volcano.cfm?vn=311300" target="_blank">Bogoslof Volcano</a>, on a tiny island of roughly 1 by 2 km out in the Bering Sea, west of the Alaska Peninsula.<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.avo.alaska.edu/images/dbimages/display/1484115739.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="480" src="https://www.avo.alaska.edu/images/dbimages/display/1484115739.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">View from a helicopter onto Bogoslof Island. Photo: Dan Leary, Maritime Helicopters</td></tr>
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Despite the fact that it's effectively in the middle of nowhere (the nearest town is roughly 100 km away), Bogoslof is an interesting one. Being up in the Aleutian Chain, it sits along a very important corridor for international air traffic. If you remember the chaos all over Europe after the 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in Iceland, it's hardly surprising that monitoring volcanoes even in parts of the world as remote as Alaska is an important task. But how do you monitor a volcano that sits on an uninhabited, far away island?<br />
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An obvious answer would be to put a bunch of instruments onto the island. However, the island is so small, so far away from any population, in such a harsh environment, that the Alaska Volcano Observatory has to focus its limited resources elsewhere. In addition, the last eruption previous to this one had occurred in 1992, and it's been at least 40 years since the last eruption before that, so unsurprisingly the volcano was relatively low on the monitoring priority list.<br />
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This changed on 20th December 2016, when several pilots in the area reported an ash cloud that had risen up to over 10 km above sea level. Because there is so much air traffic going through the region, reports like that are an important part of monitoring volcanic activity in remote areas. Whereas the eruption had stopped within an hour or two, activity at the Alaska Volcano Observatory certainly wouldn't have.<br />
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Data had to be analysed, statements had to be published and scientists were looking for signs of any unrest that may have preceded the eruption. Indeed, looking back through the data, the volcanologists realised that Bogoslof had been showing signs of activity throughout the month of December, and the first explosion may have occurred as early as 16th December. So what kind of data can volcanologists use to monitor Bogoslof?<br />
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Even though there are no seismometers on the island itself, nearby Okmok and Makushin volcanoes have extensive monitoring networks. Because seismometers are very sensitive instruments, and volcanic eruptions make the ground shake with waves that can travel a long way, it is actually possible to look at seismic signals from Bogoslof on other islands.<br />
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Similarly, <a href="https://www.avo.alaska.edu/about/infrasound.php" target="_blank">microphones recording "infrasound" </a>(i.e. sound at frequencies much lower than the range we can detect with our ears) can detect pressure signals coming from far away, and <a href="https://soundstudiesblog.com/2014/10/02/hunting-monsters-volcano-infrasound/" target="_blank">volcanic eruptions often produce distinct infrasound</a>.<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIeoFRJ0jDk6S4CCPFnmIDVYiTzE5_NdLrxw3Ow-hOUZxkMYwLJy6BymqqRByxX_PJK7HlMQPyrbfQ4n44W2lor8lXKBIUMssmReEynYyZcnTMTg52EJ1BGH6o5cHJGB7whEU9mF6_xUp5/s1600/bogoslof_tmo_2017018.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIeoFRJ0jDk6S4CCPFnmIDVYiTzE5_NdLrxw3Ow-hOUZxkMYwLJy6BymqqRByxX_PJK7HlMQPyrbfQ4n44W2lor8lXKBIUMssmReEynYyZcnTMTg52EJ1BGH6o5cHJGB7whEU9mF6_xUp5/s1600/bogoslof_tmo_2017018.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Satellite image show the ash cloud at Bogoslof Volcano on 18th January 2017. Image: NASA Earth Observatory/Jeff Schmaltz</td></tr>
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Satellites are also quite useful. A volcanic ash cloud can often be detected from space. Some satellites capture <a href="https://modis.gsfc.nasa.gov/" target="_blank">light of many different wavelengths</a>, others can detect <a href="https://so2.gsfc.nasa.gov/" target="_blank">different types of gases</a> in the atmosphere, some of which can be traced back to volcanoes. Visual observations by pilots, local residents or fishermen help to complement the picture we get from satellites.<br />
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Last but not least, volcanic lightning (i.e., lightning strikes in or around the ash cloud coming up in an eruption) has been an increasingly valuable tool to detect volcanic eruptions over the last few years. Volcanic lightning is still not fully understood and subject to <a href="https://eos.org/research-spotlights/volcanic-lightning-aid-hazard-response-eruptions" target="_blank">active study by volcanologists around the world</a>, but even without a complete understanding of the exact mechanism it is a spectacular sight and can be used for eruption detection. You can watch lightning happen all around the world through the <a href="http://wwlln.net/new/map/" target="_blank">World Wide Lightning Location Network</a> if you're interested, almost in real time.<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPYIXnWm_YeNceJ3navldijti8nMf6Zf_e-QSCm2nd5gFpJ9cVRcEbgXwogpbtGHP_IHqIZwq2nHosDOT2XQWNsgAi6FqBOmbKH9mp5qPNa3Af-MEuMhAEprJt09iPCmqCj6ImpzHRVqfu/s1600/23175834339_72d95ba601_z.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPYIXnWm_YeNceJ3navldijti8nMf6Zf_e-QSCm2nd5gFpJ9cVRcEbgXwogpbtGHP_IHqIZwq2nHosDOT2XQWNsgAi6FqBOmbKH9mp5qPNa3Af-MEuMhAEprJt09iPCmqCj6ImpzHRVqfu/s1600/23175834339_72d95ba601_z.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Spectacular eruption with volcanic lightning at Mt. Etna, Italy. Photo: Karl-Ludwig Poggemann</td></tr>
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At the time of writing this post, Bogoslof continues to have explosions every few hours to days, and scientists are analysing these eruptions through all the different types of data mentioned above, even though there are no instrument directly on the volcano. Pretty amazing, isn't it?</div>
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Katharina Unglerthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06321857721854778415noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5068944439887709976.post-13039826435975954162016-11-23T11:34:00.000-08:002016-11-23T11:38:40.237-08:00Learning from Darwin - the naturalist approach<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjveVz7NHDqBKCmHosNaYQBZ0xTHdSpMs9FF9vfH-wSf-6QyZZdaN4uPnERJ4YCQ9npK_CfJ3LejcWU7QXp73hHFskg4ITzws4i9yAtpzVBo29E-WGlpZjEZQRav4uvgWG2InPGG-FCFZXR/s1600/Editorial_cartoon_depicting_Charles_Darwin_as_an_ape_%25281871%2529.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjveVz7NHDqBKCmHosNaYQBZ0xTHdSpMs9FF9vfH-wSf-6QyZZdaN4uPnERJ4YCQ9npK_CfJ3LejcWU7QXp73hHFskg4ITzws4i9yAtpzVBo29E-WGlpZjEZQRav4uvgWG2InPGG-FCFZXR/s640/Editorial_cartoon_depicting_Charles_Darwin_as_an_ape_%25281871%2529.jpg" width="475" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">An 1871 caricature following publication of Darwin's The Descent of Man. <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Darwin" target="_blank">Charles Darwin</a> (1809-1882) was one of the most famous naturalists, whose scientific studies included geology, botany, palaeontology, human evolution and more. Image: Public Domain.</td></tr>
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I've recently been branching out in terms of topics to write about. I contributed to the <a href="http://scienceborealis.ca/" target="_blank">Science Borealis</a> blog with two posts: one on <a href="http://blog.scienceborealis.ca/from-spring-to-sea-a-journey-along-the-fraser-river/" target="_blank">rivers and their interaction with the environment</a>, and one <a href="http://blog.scienceborealis.ca/cbcs-fault-lines-a-podcast-that-delivers-what-it-promises/" target="_blank">reviewing a podcast by CBC on earthquakes in the Pacific Northwest</a>. Whereas earthquake science has always been close to my heart, rivers were not something I used to spend lots of time thinking about. Yet, it has been a very rewarding experience that allowed me to think scientifically about a new topic. It also made me wonder whether as scientists we should be more aware of the old school way of doing science. There was a time when scientists weren't seismologists, or volcanologists, or evolutionary biologists, but really "naturalists", who studied many different things a once, often leading to a less detailed but more complete picture of the world.<br />
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On the one hand, we need specialists. It takes time and effort to research the tiniest detail that could push humanity forward. As small as some advances in science seem, it takes years to build the detailed background knowledge to get to that point of understanding.<br />
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On the other hand, science couldn't survive without generalists. Inevitably, if time is spent digging deeper and deeper into a particular subject, it becomes more difficult to keep an eye on other branches of our field of study, discipline, or science in general. Without somebody to tie together the big picture, it is easy to get lost in the details of a small subfield of science. Without looking into other disciplines, we may be wasting time by reinventing something that has already been successfully applied in a different context.<br />
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In a way, specialists are the pieces and generalists the glue, that holds everything together. As an individual, striking a balance between the two can be tricky. Is the specialist vs. generalist a career decision that needs to be made early on and cannot be reversed? Is this a black or white decision, or can there be a grey area where we place ourselves somewhere along a continuous spectrum between two extremes? How do we interact with each other along this spectrum, and do we need to consider this when assembling scientific projects and teams? Are certain personalities more drawn towards or suited for one or the other? And last but not least, at times of "publish or perish", can we sustain being generalists without sacrificing our careers, when it may be much easier to publish continuously by becoming an expert in a small discipline and continue building research in the same direction? I would love to hear your thoughts, as comments, or messages, or in whichever way.<br />
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<br />Katharina Unglerthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06321857721854778415noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5068944439887709976.post-51665554558725271452016-08-27T10:22:00.000-07:002016-08-27T10:22:15.677-07:00Defending my PhD<div style="text-align: justify;">
As promised in the last post, here comes an account of what inevitably follows after 4-5 years of working as a PhD student: The defense! In a Canadian defense the student gets to present the main results from their thesis, the examination committee can ask questions about thesis and the research, and everything is witnessed by anybody who would like to be there. The audience can even ask questions, too! So let's see how mine went:</div>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 12.8px;">In Germany, colleagues traditionally make a doctoral hat ("Doktorhut") and decorate it with lots of items that reflect the person, or the research, in some way or another. James got everyone in my office to pitch and make one - don't I look cool?! ;) © James Hickey</td></tr>
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After submitting my thesis at the end of April, I scheduled my defense for early July. The time frame was dictated partly by the university in order to give the external examiner enough time to work through the thesis, and partly by time constraints of my supervisor and committee members. I spent most of the time in between relaxing and regaining some of my mojo, which had - not surprisingly - gotten lost a bit during the last frantic weeks of writing. </div>
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Around two weeks before the defense my German-ness kicked in, and I decided it was time to start my preparations. I started out by re-reading my thesis - it's impressive how much stuff you can forget, even if it's your own work, in just a matter of a few weeks! </div>
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The next step was to prepare my presentation. My aim was that the talk itself should be interesting to somebody who doesn't know anything about what I did for my PhD, so I included some background slides that would explain to my mum or my grandma what the basic terms and concepts are. I then spent most of the presentation showing some results from the last chapter of my thesis. That part hadn't gotten as much attention in previous talks, simply because it was the newest addition to my research. This also meant that I was still excited to talk about it - something that wasn't necessarily the case with the previous chapters. It's not that they aren't interesting, it's just a bit tiring to keep talking about the same thing over and over again, and I wanted to make sure that the presentation was exciting to the audience, which is easiest if I - the presenter - was excited about it myself.</div>
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I did two practice presentations in front of an audience, one in the actual room where my defense was going to be held. It was nice to get a feel for what the room was going to look and feel like on the day, and to be aware of any peculiarities of the setting (for example, which light switches turn on/off which lights, the fact that the projector cuts of a tiny slice of the left-hand side of the slides, ...). I felt two practice rounds were just about right, anything less than that and I might have not been comfortable with the presentation, anything more and it might have sounded too rehearsed on the day.</div>
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The last part of my preparations was supposed to include thinking of questions that people might ask me after the talk, refreshing some of the background knowledge that went into my research, and brushing up on some basic concepts that I may have forgotten about since I applied them for my work. It turned out my motivation for this kind of preparation was fairly low, and with various other things going on there wasn't actually that much time anyways.</div>
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So finally, the big day was here! Of course I was super nervous, and showed up half an hour early just to get my bearings, set up my laptop for the presentation, and have some time to breathe. My supervisor, committee, and audience started to dribble in, and the 30 minutes build-up felt like half an eternity. The actual defense, in contrast, went surprisingly quickly. My talk went well and I managed to stay within the allotted time frame. The three rounds of questions that followed (one from the committee, one from the audience, and another one from the committee) were all about parts of my research that I could easily answer - after all I had done the work and thought about everything that went into the thesis for years! That also meant that it wasn't a huge deal that I hadn't been able to "study" or revise much beforehand. After a couple of hours that felt like much less than that, the whole thing was over. The committee sent everyone for a closed discussion, and after only a short while brought me back in to say that I had passed with only minor revisions - yay!</div>
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The rest of the day was dominated by lots of cheers, toasts, drinking, eating, and celebrating. My supervisor had put out an invite to everyone in our research group and some other friends to gather at his house for a party, and needless to say after all that I collapsed into bed and slept for a loooong time!</div>
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In retrospect, I think my preparations (or lack thereof) worked out quite well. Lots of people said to me beforehand, "Enjoy the process, this day is all about you", but that's much easier said than done. I did find that nobody really wanted to trip me up, and most questions I got reflected that, so the only "prep" that was really needed was to be confident about what I did, and to be open to some potential different approaches or to new perspectives on my research. </div>
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Last but not least, I woke up the next morning, not really feeling any different. With all this build-up over the years, the ups and downs of the research and grad student life, the stress of writing up the thesis, and the tension before the big day, it's almost an expectation that things should be new, and different, somehow, when you're through. And yet - there was nothing! It still hasn't fully sunk in yet, despite having submitted my corrections and officially having finished my programme in the meantime. I do, however, now appreciate much more why people want to use those two letters in front of their name. It's not to say that a PhD, or being a Dr., means you're better than anyone else. It simply means that you've gone through a whole lot of blood, sweat, and tears (almost literally) to get to this point, and it feels nice when people acknowledge that. And after all, Dr. K sounds pretty awesome, don't you think? :)</div>
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Katharina Unglerthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06321857721854778415noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5068944439887709976.post-46862840873831258052016-07-25T07:21:00.000-07:002016-07-25T07:21:23.625-07:00The way through my PhD, and how I managed to get to my defense<div style="text-align: justify;">
That moment that I've been working towards for so long, it's finally here! Just over 2 weeks ago, I successfully defended my PhD thesis. I'm only a few minor corrections away from officially being a Dr. - yay! But let's go back and see how I got here. I'll follow up and tell you about the actual defense in the next post, so stay tuned!</div>
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After a bunch of <a href="http://volcano-diaries.blogspot.co.uk/2015/01/a-road-to-studying-volcanoes.html" target="_blank">applications and preparation</a>, I started my PhD at UBC in Vancouver in September 2011. The anticipated time to do a PhD at UBC is 4 years, but most people that I know have taken a bit more than that, usually 4.5-5 years. Taking into account my 4-months leave last summer, I managed to fall pretty much exactly into that time frame. </div>
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<b>The first couple of years</b> were quite "slow", meaning that I didn't make tons of research progress. This is quite normal, it took some time to get my bearings in a new city and at a new university, I took some classes, my supervisor was on sabbatical for a year, and we spend some time trying to figure out what exactly I would work on. </div>
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Once we had the details of the project narrowed down, I took my "<b>candidacy exam</b>". The main step was to write a proposal for my work, and then have a "mini-defense" in front of my supervisory committee. This exam exists so they can determine whether I would advance from PhD student to PhD candidate - a first stamp of approval that says, "Yes, we think she will be capable of doing the work and successful in her PhD". Around this time, my supervisor and I agreed that I should have at least three publications in order to finish my degree.</div>
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The pace picked up a bit in <b>my third year</b>, when we spent quite some time writing my first publication. It was a slower process than I expected, partly because I had only written a publication with my Master's supervisor, and my PhD supervisor and I needed to work out how to align our writing styles, our ways of thinking, etc. It was really good to do this waaaay before I was due to write my actual thesis, I imagine the thesis would have been quite a big effort otherwise.</div>
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<b>In my fourth year,</b> I thought I had a plan and was on schedule to finish by summer 2016 without a huge rush. Of course, the way these things go, the plan fell through and I went on leave for an internship, knowing that I would only have two semesters left when getting back to UBC, and still having to do a TON of research, and write up two publications about said research. </div>
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Those last two semesters, the end of my fourth and <b>beginning of my fifth year </b>were a crazy, crazy time. I spent most of my waking hours trying to get the research done as soon as possible, and at least have my second paper accepted, if not published by the time my thesis needed to be submitted. In addition, I had chosen to move to the UK more or less permanently during that time, so I also had to organize my move and all sorts of logistical issues. </div>
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That second paper took its sweet time, but was finally accepted just a couple of weeks before my thesis was due. Because the revisions for this publication had taken so long, there wasn't much time for paper number 3. Within about three weeks in early-mid April of this year, I churned out my last publication, and managed to get it into a submittable state just in time. We submitted the thesis and the paper a day ahead of schedule, set a date for my defense, took care of all the logistics, and the following weeks were amazingly free of worries and work. </div>
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I'll talk more about the actual defense next time, but for now I want to finish with four take-home points, that will hopefully help you, as a PhD or other graduate student, to focus on what's important and stay on schedule. If you're not in grad school and have no intention of every going down that route, then maybe at least with this post you will have gotten a glimpse into my life for the last few months and years, and forgive me for neglecting my blog or friends for a while here and there.</div>
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So here's the gist:</div>
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<li>Don't worry, if things seem to be progressing quite slowly in the beginning (or almost up to the end). Most people I know did almost all of their really productive work in their last year.</li>
<li>Have clear goals set from the start, and make sure you're on the same page as your supervisor (having 3 publications was the goal in my case). That way it's easy for you to check in on the way and decide when to call it a day.</li>
<li>Have a plan, but be prepared for things to go wrong - because they will. Inevitably.</li>
<li>Try to publish as much as you can on the way, if your university allows it, and use those publications in your thesis. That way you'll have parts of your thesis written way before you're actually thinking about sitting down to write that dissertation.</li>
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This last item turned out to be quite important for my defense, as we will see next time...</div>
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Katharina Unglerthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06321857721854778415noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5068944439887709976.post-12682372484279463672016-04-26T07:30:00.000-07:002016-04-26T07:30:16.906-07:00Science journalism - Or how I met Jonathan Amos<div style="text-align: justify;">
Last week, I was in Vienna for the General Assembly of the European Geosciences Union (EGU). Every year, more than 10,000 geoscientists come together in this beautiful city on the banks of the Danube and discuss their latest research results. Along with the scientists, educators, teachers, and policy makers, journalists join the party and report some of the most interesting, surprising, or groundbreaking scientific findings. For the first time, EGU launched a student reporter programme this year. There were five of us students who got to report on aspects of the meeting for some of the EGU division blogs (check out my posts for the <a href="http://blogs.egu.eu/divisions/cr/2016/04/22/when-cryospheric-research-transforms-lives/" target="_blank">EGU Cryosphere Blog here</a>). One of the perks of our reporter status was that we got access to the press office, where I had the chance to have a chat with Jonathan Amos, science correspondent for the BBC.</div>
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Jonathan - originally from Bristol, my new home - has been working for the <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/correspondents/jonathanamos" target="_blank">BBC</a> since the mid 90s, but as it turns out he also has a background in science. Originally trained in sociology, he decided to take distance courses at the Open University to learn more about different scientific disciplines after having started working as a reporter. His continuous interest in science is very evident in his reporting, and among other he has been awarded with the prestigious <a href="http://www.clarkefoundation.org/about-us/awards/" target="_blank">Sir Arthur Clarke Award</a>.</div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5TLtbqCUxxl0FmE0Y9Dk643W8yu2NeKAZ73XAayo0-BNngRBi1fRDogbF12Jg0nzSp29hqtqiODYJZk1pMcS1QO03BOQkYGj_ywXyiXWKmiZuQutjw9XdHsaDwnM6Jc3Tq0-5v6bK09SX/s1600/Screen+Shot+2016-04-26+at+3.26.52+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="204" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5TLtbqCUxxl0FmE0Y9Dk643W8yu2NeKAZ73XAayo0-BNngRBi1fRDogbF12Jg0nzSp29hqtqiODYJZk1pMcS1QO03BOQkYGj_ywXyiXWKmiZuQutjw9XdHsaDwnM6Jc3Tq0-5v6bK09SX/s640/Screen+Shot+2016-04-26+at+3.26.52+PM.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Jonathan's profile on the BBC homepage. I had no idea that he is from Bristol!</td></tr>
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As someone who has acquired most of her science communication experience in North America, I was curious about Jonathan's opinion on differences in terms of science journalism on different sides of the Atlantic. Initially, his answer was that he can't think of any fundamental differences. However, when we kept talking about the issue he mentioned that from his view it seems like many science events in North America (such as the <a href="https://fallmeeting.agu.org/2016/" target="_blank">American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting</a> in San Francisco) do not get covered by the big US television networks. I never noticed that! This issue would probably be relatively easy to fix, and might help with some of polarization the US population is experiencing in terms of whether or not scientific facts are understood and accepted by the general public. </div>
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Related to improving the way scientists communicate with the public, Jonathan made an interesting comment. As a scientist I sometimes read articles in the newspaper and get a bit dissatisfied with the use of some scientific terms. Viewed from a journalistic perspective, however, sometimes scientific accuracy might be less important than using a term that gets the concept across to a reader, in a way where they can relate to the idea with something they are familiar with. Jonathan's example was the term "<a href="https://www.nasa.gov/pdf/180567main_ETM.Regolith.Formation.pdf" target="_blank">regolith</a>", which is used to describe the outermost layer of the moon. Even though there is definitely no soil in the scientific definition on the moon, using the term "soil" when we talk about regolith helps to convey the idea that regolith is often quite lose and broken up. I have to agree that using slightly inaccurate analogies might sometimes be good to convey a message. However, many misconceptions about scientific facts come from the use of such analogies. For example, during my outreach visits to schools I've encountered more than one teacher who believe the Earth's mantle is molten. The mantle does "flow" over time periods of many thousands or even millions of years, but there is only a very small amount of actual melt. If teachers have misconceptions about science, these will be passed on to our children, so if science concepts are simplified too much we risk misunderstanding. In the case of "regolith" and other specific terms I think the best option might be to use the term, but explain it properly when it's used the first time. What do you think?</div>
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Viewing the conference, geosciences, and science communication from the perspective of a journalist was definitely a unique experience, and one that I wouldn't want to miss. From what I've seen in the press office last week things can get pretty hectic, so I appreciate that Jonathan took the time to sit down with me and answer all my questions. At the end of my interview he told me that he likes to ride his bike, so keep an eye out and maybe you'll see him whizzing past on his way to the next interview...</div>
Katharina Unglerthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06321857721854778415noreply@blogger.com4Bristol, UK51.454006910059839 -2.58178710937550.819742410059838 -3.872680609375 52.088271410059839 -1.290893609375tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5068944439887709976.post-18288590735174869922016-02-15T06:43:00.000-08:002016-02-15T06:43:11.890-08:00Please hold<div style="text-align: justify;">
Dear beloved readership, with no doubt you will have noticed that it's been eerily quiet on these pages lately. I am in the process of finishing up my PhD thesis, and I desperately need the few minutes every week that aren't occupied with data analysis, writing, eating, or sleeping to get away from my computer, to go outside, or to the gym to get rid of some of the tension that builds up during the rest of the day. Unfortunately that means that I will put this blog on hold for the next few months. Hopefully at some point this summer, I will be back with good news. In the meantime, I hope that you will find other volcano- and science-y online resources, and that my absence won't stretch your patience too much. Wait for me on the other side!</div>
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Katharina Unglerthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06321857721854778415noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5068944439887709976.post-4640386294502105232015-11-25T21:54:00.000-08:002015-12-15T20:47:14.655-08:00A volcano lover's gift guide<div style="text-align: justify;">
Once again, it is that time of the year - when the smell of baked goods and mulled wine floats through the air, jingly music comes from a speaker somewhere, and you can hear the crackling of a fire and the roar of a volcano... uh, what?</div>
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Just as to any volcano lover, volcano-y gifts are the icing on the holiday cake to me. So I thought I'd put together a list of awesome volcano-related gift ideas*, and share them with you. If you're not interested in gifts, but would like the take a super quick survey about science blogging, go ahead and scroll to the end.</div>
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<li style="text-align: justify;">Based on my personal experience, volcano-lovers more often than not also love games. Why not give them a deck of Volcano Top Trump cards? Guaranteed volcano-battling-fun for all ages, and awesome for your bank account too - they come for only £4.99 (distributed through the University of Plymouth, <a href="http://volcanoestoptrumps.org/" target="_blank">click here</a>)!</li>
<li style="text-align: justify;">For those who are more passive admirers than active players, a volcano calendar might be just the right thing. Pleasing to the eye, fascinating to the scientifically curious mind, and delivering a little bit of (imaginary) heat to any living room, volcano calendars are awesome because your volcano-inclined friend needs a new one every year! They usually come at a reasonable price, have all sorts of shapes and sizes, and may come with captions in different languages. They even come in your favourite currency! One example for €17 can be ordered <a href="http://www.volcanodiscovery.com/volcano-calendar2016.html" target="_blank">here</a>, or another one for $17.99 <a href="http://www.browntrout.ca/science-and-nature/volcanoes-2016-square-12x12.html" target="_blank">here</a>.</li>
<li style="text-align: justify;">Going back to games, just because most of us have their inner child available somewhere. Did you know that my favourite board game of all times, Settlers of Catan, comes with an optional volcano tile?? This highly exciting variation of the game promises to add just the right level of excitement for all the risk takers among us. Apparently it can be bought as part of the <a href="http://www.amazon.de/gp/product/B003NY9FTM/ref=s9_dcbhz_bw_g21_i4_sh#productDetails" target="_blank">Atlantis Scenario Extension</a> (only in German, as far as I'm aware), or if you're looking for a cheaper option you can simply download and print the volcano tile from <a href="http://www.catanmaps.com/catan-volcano-rules/" target="_blank">here</a>.</li>
<li style="text-align: justify;">Feeling slightly cheeky? I highly recommend a selection of volcano-y movies for the not so serious volcano-phile. Among my all-time favourites are of course <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0118928/?ref_=nv_sr_1" target="_blank">Dante's Peak</a> (Pierce Brosnan), <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0120461/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1" target="_blank">Volcano</a> (Tommy Lee Jones), and the original <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0052948/?ref_=nv_sr_3" target="_blank">Journey to the Center of the Earth</a> (admittedly only somewhat volcano-related). One that I haven't seen but might add to my list is <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0083117/" target="_blank">St. Helens</a>, and one that I definitely would not recommend at all is <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1921064/?ref_=nv_sr_1" target="_blank">Pompeii</a>. But that's just me... Once you've picked your candidate, you can just buy a DVD if you want a simple present, or design a whole evening around a home screening of your volcano movie of choice. Maybe even accompanied by a freshly baked lava cake?</li>
<li style="text-align: justify;">Speaking of lava cake. A <a href="http://www.bbcgoodfood.com/recipes/1753648/easy-chocolate-molten-cake" target="_blank">mouthwatering chocolate lava cake</a> says more than a thousand words. I haven't tested this particular recipe, but it sounds temptingly simple.</li>
<li style="text-align: justify;">If you accidentally left your chocolate lava cake in the oven for too long, do not despair! You can always leave it in a bit longer and later gift it as a beautiful volcanic rock sample, with your own description of formation added... If you'd rather go the conventional route, a nice piece of volcanic rock from a volcano of your choice will let any semi-serious geo-enthusiast's heart beat faster. Volcanic rocks can be incredibly diverse and astonishingly beautiful. If you don't have a volcano as a source for your rock gifts in your backyard, you could order some rock kits that include igneous (= volcanic rocks from above and below the surface) samples <a href="http://geology.com/store/collections/rock-kit.shtml" target="_blank">here</a> or <a href="http://www.amazon.ca/Educational-Insights-Igneous-Rock-Collection/dp/B000BQJNQU" target="_blank">here</a>. Of course, if you found the sample yourself, you can add a little description with your story that goes with it. And maybe you were lucky enough to find a <a href="http://geology.utah.gov/popular/places-to-go/rock-mineral-collecting-sites/the-rockhounder-obsidian-in-the-black-rock-desert-millard-county/" target="_blank">snowflake obsidian</a>, or one of those <a href="http://geology.utah.gov/popular/places-to-go/rock-mineral-collecting-sites/the-rockhounder-wonderstone-in-the-vernon-hills-tooele-county/" target="_blank">beautiful banded, glassy volcanic rhyolites</a>?</li>
<li style="text-align: justify;">While we're talking about geosciences: Somebody more interested in practical gifts and with a knack for popular science might enjoy a digital edition of a magazine themed around volcanoes. You can order a (German) digital collection about volcanoes and earthquakes by Spektrum der Wissenschaft for €4.99 <a href="http://www.spektrum.de/pdf/erdbeben-und-vulkane-unsere-unruhige-erde/1307482" target="_blank">here</a>, or maybe <a href="https://lakithebook.wordpress.com/" target="_blank">Alex Witze's book</a> about the Laki eruption in Iceland in 1783?</li>
<li style="text-align: justify;">On the topic of books: John Mullan at The Guardian put together <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/books/2009/aug/08/ten-best-volcanoes" target="_blank">this list</a> of volcano-related fiction books. Even though I would question the appearance of Lord of the Rings on the list, overall it sounds like some of the suggestions might be really good reads! Or if you're looking for something for a little one, maybe <a href="https://sciencemimicsart.wordpress.com/2012/12/06/top-5-kids-volcano-fiction/" target="_blank">this list</a> by Jenni Barclay over at the University of East Anglia will give you some inspiration.</li>
<li style="text-align: justify;">Know someone who isn't too shy to display their volcano enthusiasm? Surprise them with a volcano-y piece of clothing! There are these cool looking (but somewhat pricey) volcano <a href="https://mrgugu.com/en/newin/clothing/hoodie/volcano-hoodie" target="_blank">hoodies</a>/<a href="https://mrgugu.com/en/men/volcano-sweater" target="_blank">sweaters</a>/<a href="https://mrgugu.com/en/newin/clothing/tops/volcano-top" target="_blank">tank tops</a>, or some <a href="https://www.etsy.com/ca/listing/250764634/personalized-dinosaur-and-volcano-shirt?ga_order=most_relevant&ga_search_type=all&ga_view_type=gallery&ga_search_query=volcano&ref=sc_gallery_6&plkey=4b77d63ee86ab1e3fedb54c6209304be9e66321f:250764634" target="_blank">cute handmade volcano and dinosaur onesies</a>, or even a <a href="https://www.etsy.com/ca/listing/199828108/volcano-catsuit?ga_order=most_relevant&ga_search_type=all&ga_view_type=gallery&ga_search_query=volcano&ref=sc_gallery_3&plkey=90f60d32b261774caaf0da6ff873f18356d5eb13:199828108" target="_blank">volcano-print catsuit</a>!</li>
<li style="text-align: justify;">Last but not least, the crown jewel of volcano gifts - probably somewhat out of most people's regular holiday price range... a trip to a volcano! If you're in Europe you might want to go to Stromboli (Italy) to see its fireworks, if you're in North or South America maybe a trip to Popocatepetl or Colima (Mexico) to spot their ash clouds, from Asia you could hop over to Sakurajima (Japan) to see its almost daily explosions, if you find yourself in Oceania take the plane/boat/helicopter to White Island (New Zealand) to see some phreatic (= water/steam related) eruptions, or if for some magical reason you happen to be in Antarctica you could try to get a view into the lava lake at Erebus Volcano. So many options, not enough time (or money).</li>
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Hopefully I've managed to inspire your imagination and give you lots of awesome volcano-y gift ideas. Obviously there are lots of possibilities, so if you think of something amazing that I didn't mention feel free to comment or shoot me a message.</div>
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Lastly, I've teamed up with Science Borealis, Dr. Paige Jarreau from Louisiana State University and 20 other Canadian science bloggers, to conduct a broad survey of Canadian science blog readers. Together we are trying to find out who reads science blogs in Canada, where they come from, whether Canadian-specific content is important to them and where they go for trustworthy, accurate science news and information. Your feedback will also help me learn more about my own blog readers. </div>
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It only take 5 minutes to complete the survey. Please, please, please, take the survey here: <a href="http://bit.ly/ScienceBorealisSurvey"><span class="s1">http://bit.ly/ScienceBorealisSurvey</span></a></div>
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If you complete the survey you will be entered to win one of eleven prizes! A $50 Chapters Gift Card, a $20 surprise gift card, 3 Science Borealis T-shirts and 6 Surprise Gifts! PLUS everyone who completes the survey will receive a free hi-resolution science photograph from Paige's Photography! </div>
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This is one of the photos I got :)</div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikgGMXL0felkxYKIIZaxp4_fObt7amFN9uco2b_DeU1QLt4SGSNQvjVwJYy4HrSzIm234QC_KJuZ_eSI4DWNmp15fvEb_lvRZD3cRQ64IhTG6L22fgRVybYrqOlXZiwx-MhJPxRnJwQfpl/s1600/Formica_pallidefulva_worker_on_a_wood_log_1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikgGMXL0felkxYKIIZaxp4_fObt7amFN9uco2b_DeU1QLt4SGSNQvjVwJYy4HrSzIm234QC_KJuZ_eSI4DWNmp15fvEb_lvRZD3cRQ64IhTG6L22fgRVybYrqOlXZiwx-MhJPxRnJwQfpl/s640/Formica_pallidefulva_worker_on_a_wood_log_1.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: Paige Jarreau</td></tr>
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*Disclaimer: I am not affiliated with any of the vendors, nor do I make any profit by writing this list. I just like volcanoes :)</div>
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<br />Katharina Unglerthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06321857721854778415noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5068944439887709976.post-15170029692441463542015-10-25T20:12:00.001-07:002015-10-25T20:17:42.569-07:00Like a box of chocolates<div style="text-align: justify;">
Sometimes studying volcanoes is similar to what Forrest Gump told us about life: You never know what you're gonna get.</div>
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Yesterday we had our Vancouver Volcano Studies Group meeting. Basically, this group consists of a bunch of people in Vancouver doing volcano related research, or people who are just somehow affiliated with one of us and interested in the topic. This time, we decided to have a once-a-term mini-conference. A bunch of us gave talks about our volcano-y research, and I was pretty blown away. I mean, I'm a volcanologist, so surely I know about most of the methods we use to study volcanoes, right? Incorrect. There are so many cool ways we can study volcanoes that people talked about yesterday, it was really fascinating. And the best part? Some methods can be done by anyone! Citizen scientists, we need you!</div>
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So let me give you some examples.</div>
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<li style="text-align: justify;">Drones! This is of course a buzz word at the moment, but turns out they can really help us to learn about our volcanic neighbours. Drones are good, because they don't care too much if a volcano erupts a bunch of gases that might not be great for human health - at least if you don't leave the drone sitting in those gases for days or weeks at a time. Also, with drones we can cover a lot of ground in a short amount of time, and get to see places that otherwise we might never get to. That means we can fly a drone over a lava lake, or some other potentially dangerous part of the volcano, and get video footage without having to risk our lives. Yay! You can also mount all sorts of cool equipment on a drone, depending on how big the equipment is and how strong/stable the drone is. I'm thinking, maybe small gas sensors, or a thermal camera? </li>
<li style="text-align: justify;">Lasers! Ok, this sounds tacky, but seriously. There is a technique called "Lidar", which means you shoot a laser pulse at something, it bounces off, comes back to your sensor, and you can measure the time it takes, and maybe some other things about the returning pulse. We can cover whole areas with those Lidar measurements, and that way reconstruct the surface that we were scanning, in 3D! Certain properties about the returning waves might even give us some information about the material we were scanning. That means, without having to go there, we can scan surfaces and observe how they are changing over time. For example, we can learn about lava lake explosions when rocks fall into the lake from the walls. How? We measure the volume of rock lost into a lava lake in a rock fall, by comparing the Lidar scans from before and after, and we can of course measure the height of the explosion from the lava lake, or some other property. That way we can learn about potential processes happening underneath the surface of the lava lake during the rock fall, or at the very least we can know for next time when a rock fall happens how big the explosion might get.</li>
<li style="text-align: justify;">This is maybe the coolest one, cause it's so simple that anyone can do it: Photos! If you take lots of photos of the same object from different angles, there is software that can create a 3D image of your object. That way we can get detailed models of areas that are too difficult or too dangerous to get to, just like with drones. Even better if we can combine the two somehow, drones and photos. We could study the surfaces of the rock on a high peak, for example, and learn about how they formed, or we could get the change of time of the surface of a growing lava dome at really high detail - maybe this can tell us when a collapse of the dome may be happening soon? Of course there are lots of calculations and conditions that need to be met for this to work, but in theory anybody could do this! If you're an avid climber or mountaineer, you might be able to help us study some of the old volcanic peaks by taken photographs of them from certain angles during your trips, and submitting them to some sort of central repository afterwards - so you get to contribute to science while doing your favourite outdoor activities, isn't that cool?!</li>
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I realized during the meeting that this kind of thing happens quite often: I go to a meeting or conference, expecting the standard presentations, and then get something completely unexpected, new, and exciting! To me, it was most surprising to see how simple some of the concepts are, and yet how useful they might be to learn things about volcanoes! Sometimes, the best ideas are the really simple ones.</div>
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Katharina Unglerthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06321857721854778415noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5068944439887709976.post-2801295981164762032015-07-20T17:35:00.002-07:002015-07-20T17:35:54.184-07:00Volcanoes in Ecuador<div style="text-align: justify;">
Last November I participated in a workshop on volcanic unrest, where we spent several days discussing possible tell tale signs that a volcano might be waking up, and whether or not we can use these signs to know whether it is going to erupt or whether it's just stirring a bit before it's going back to sleep. Turns out that knowing for sure is actually quite difficult!</div>
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We also got a chance to do an eruption simulation, where we were fed fake monitoring data and were supposed to make decisions about advice to local authorities and emergency management along the way.</div>
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From a science perspective the workshop was interesting, but what I think was most valuable (and is often overlooked) is how it brought together scientists, civil defense and emergency management professionals, monitoring organizations, and local (political) authorities. Communication between these different entities is crucial particularly in crisis situations around natural disasters, but can't function properly if it hasn't been establish long before an actual emergency occurs. Every scientific project with a natural disasters component should include all of these groups!</div>
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Last but not least, of course we visited two of the local volcanoes, Cotopaxi and Tungurahua. Neither of them were in eruption at the time, but both of them presented majestic sights.</div>
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Below a video from the VUELCO project, that summarizes our experience.</div>
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Katharina Unglerthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06321857721854778415noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5068944439887709976.post-89710994355272295992015-06-22T06:09:00.000-07:002015-06-22T06:09:36.289-07:00Disaster preparedness - Plan, pack, proof<div style="text-align: justify;">
Natural disasters can strike pretty much anywhere and anytime. I'm not just talking about volcanic eruptions, but anything from flooding through wind to earthquakes, landslides, and more. I have never lived in a place that was 100% free from natural disasters, and probably never will. Neither do you. </div>
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When I was in southern Germany, we got thunderstorms, hail, and crazy rain that can lead to flooding, especially in the plains at the foot of the European Alps. In the mountains themselves, landslides and rockfalls are not unheard of. In New Zealand, we had earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, storms, and even the odd tsunami alert from earthquakes happening far away. In BC, volcanoes are only a smaller problem, but (potentially large) earthquakes can happen. Whereas the West coast of Vancouver Island may get hit by Tsunamis, Vancouver is relatively sheltered. Winter storms can still hit pretty badly. I recently did a temporary move to Houston, Texas. If you've been following some US news I'm sure you heard/read about the Memorial Day flooding we've had down there. Tropical storm Bill, which followed a couple weeks later, was relatively harmless, thankfully, but Hurricane season has just started and we don't yet know what it will bring. The storm, however, got me thinking once again about being prepared for natural disasters.</div>
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Even though we may have little or no warning of what's coming our way (depending on whether we're talking weather, volcanic eruptions, or earthquakes, for example), there are definitely ways in which we can at least try to soften the impact natural disasters have on our lives. Of course, my German-ness makes me biased - after I all I love planning things, but in this particular case we could all benefit from some small preventative measures. The type of preparation might change depending on what kind of natural disasters your region is prone to, but some things are the same no matter whether you live in a volcanic area or somewhere with blizzards dumping snow on you. There are two important things to keep in mind:</div>
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<li style="text-align: justify;">Come up with a plan well in <i>advance</i>. Whereas with a hurricane we might get a few days warning ahead of time, earthquakes unfortunately don't do us favours like that. We want to be ready when disaster strikes, and it will only take maybe an afternoon to come up with the basics.</li>
<li style="text-align: justify;">Most of your planning will not go into the logistics for the actual event, but mostly the aftermath - when power and water might be gone, infrastructure might be damaged, shops closed, and when we might have to be self-sustained for a number of days.</li>
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So that being said, here are some simple things that you can do to reduce the damage a natural disaster might do to your home, belongings, and loved ones.</div>
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<b>Phase 1: Plan</b></div>
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Educate yourself about natural disasters that might happen in your area. Geologic surveys, met offices, and other (potentially government run) organizations and their websites are great resources. Work your way down from large to small: What natural disasters occur in my part of the world? How would my town be affected? My neighbourhood? My house? My commute? My workplace? My kids' school? For example, you might live in an area where flash flooding can occur after heavy rain, but your house is on top of a hill, in which case you would not necessarily have to be super worried about large amounts of water accumulating in or around your house. Or you may live in an earthquake prone region, and your house might be on top of sand or gravel type sediments, in which case the shaking from an earthquake might be worse than if the building was on a thick, stable granite. Knowing what could happen can win you half the battle. Below an example of an earthquake hazard map for Victoria, BC, from the Ministry of Energy and Mines. Similar resources might also be available in public libraries.</div>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Relative earthquake hazard map for Victoria, BC. Monahan et al, 2000, from Ministry of Energy and Mines (http://www.empr.gov.bc.ca/Mining/Geoscience/NaturalHazards/VictoriaEarthquakeMaps/composite/Pages/default.aspx)</td></tr>
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Furthermore, come up with a plan for your family. How are family members going to get in touch in case of a disaster? Is there somebody outside the area who could serve as a check-in point? What if the event occurs when you are at work/school? What if it's at night? Do you have a pet that needs extra consideration? Make sure everyone is aware of the hazards and knows what to do. Again, there are some amazing <a href="http://www.getprepared.gc.ca/cnt/rsrcs/pblctns/yprprdnssgd/index-en.aspx" target="_blank">online resources</a> that make coming up with a plan really easy.</div>
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<b>Phase 2: Pack</b></div>
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Once you know the potential natural disasters and their impacts, pack an <a href="http://www.redcross.org/prepare/location/home-family/get-kit" target="_blank">emergency kit</a>. Imagine being without water/power/outside help for several days. You will need enough water for everyone in the house, dry/canned food, medications, first aid, flashlights, spare batteries, cell phones and chargers (ideally with portable power sources), some tools and/or an army knife, your most important documents such as passports, some blankets, warm/waterproof clothes, and so on. Having documents in a waterproof case/envelope might be useful. Some extra items like sleeping bags, or your children's favourites toys could be a good idea too. Make sure everything is in one, easily accessible place, and everyone knows where that is. If you don't want to assemble a kit yourself, you can even <a href="http://www.redcrossstore.org/Category/Id/1" target="_blank">buy them online</a>! Be sure to change water/food/medication every few months so that nothing is out of date. And again, having everything ready well before a natural disaster occurs is crucial - when I went to the supermarket the night before Bill was supposed to make landfall they were almost out of bottled water, and canned food was running quite low too.</div>
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<b>Phase 3: Proof</b></div>
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Last but not least, try to proof your house for the potential event. For example, in earthquake regions you could move heavy items to the bottom of shelves instead of the top, to avoid heavy objects such as books tumbling down and injuring people. Or, in regions along hurricane paths it might be useful to always secure or limit the number of loose items in the backyard/on your balcony, outdoor shutters, and more. It all depends on the type of natural disaster happening in your area.</div>
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That doesn't sound so difficult, does it? By doing all this you won't be able to reduce the hazard (i.e. the potential for natural disasters) to your particular area, but at least you have done everything in your power to lower the risk (i.e. your vulnerability to the existing hazards). In the grand scheme of things, it doesn't take long, it doesn't cost much, but it might make your life a lot easier in case something really does happen! Stay safe!</div>
<br />Katharina Unglerthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06321857721854778415noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5068944439887709976.post-67081107103910232092015-04-26T14:46:00.000-07:002015-04-26T14:47:20.266-07:00Calbuco Volcano - a beginner's guide to its hazards<div style="text-align: justify;">
I'm sure you all have read tons about Calbuco Volcano now, so I'm not going to bore you with the details. Hopefully you've seen some of the stunning photos that have emerged, e.g., the <a href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/85510814@N06/with/17050602837/" target="_blank">ones on the Flickr stream by the Chilean Geological Service</a>.</div>
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I quickly want to talk about hazards though. This volcano has quite the selection of hazards for you to choose from. The explosive eruptions have sent <a href="http://volcano-diaries.blogspot.ca/2014/02/mini-series-on-volcano-hazards-ash-and.html" target="_blank">ash</a> more than 15 km high into the air (click on the orange links to learn more about each hazard). This ash is covering a lot of infrastructure, property, and destroying crops. Most of it is being blown to the North-East at this point. With eruptions this explosive there will also be <a href="http://volcano-diaries.blogspot.ca/2014/03/add-on-volcanic-bomb.html" target="_blank">big blocks of rock</a> being thrown out of the volcano, sometimes landing several kilometers away!</div>
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If an ash cloud collapses it can produce a <a href="http://volcano-diaries.blogspot.ca/2014/03/mini-series-on-volcano-hazards-part-ii.html" target="_blank">pyroclastic flow</a>. The deposits from old eruptions at Calbuco show that pyroclastic flows in the past have reached as far as Puerto Montt, a city with around 200,000 inhabitants around 30 km away from the mountain. For now I would guess that these pyroclastic flows are more likely to go towards the North-East, following the direction of the wind, but there is no way to know for sure, especially if the weather conditions change.</div>
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In addition, if ash settles on the mountain and is mixed with water (for example from snow on the top, of if there is a bit more rain over the next few days or weeks), <a href="http://volcano-diaries.blogspot.ca/2014/04/mini-series-on-volcano-hazards-part-iii.html" target="_blank">big lahars</a> (mudflows, mixtures of ash, dirt, water, snow, and debris such as trees etc.) can happen and travel down the valleys of some of the many rivers flowing down the slopes of the mountains. These flows can be incredibly powerful and destructive. Lahars can also reach tens of kilometers, so the 20 km exclusion zone they've put up makes a lot of sense.</div>
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In addition, some lava fountaining has been seen at Calbuco after the initial, more explosive phase that sent the ash into the skies. This means that some small lava flows can occur on the mountain. And of course, the gases that accompany volcanic eruptions can be quite dangerous too, if you get too close. Better stay at a safe distance. That way it's also much easier to take photos of the entire ash cloud!</div>
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It currently looks like the activity is getting a bit weaker: Whereas the <a href="http://www.sernageomin.cl/reportesVolcanes/2015042307582239RAV_Los_Lagos_2015_abril_vol_4.pdf" target="_blank">Chilean Geological Survey observed</a> more than 1,500 earthquakes between April 22-23, this number went down to just over 1,000 between April 23-24, just over 500 one day later, and to around 300 today. Unfortunately it's very difficult to know whether this number is going to increase again, which could mean another pulse of eruptive activity. For now all we can do is to closely monitor and to keep away from the mountain as much as possible.</div>
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Katharina Unglerthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06321857721854778415noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5068944439887709976.post-50112886778385910442015-03-10T02:59:00.001-07:002015-03-10T02:59:47.388-07:00Volcanic whistles and more<div style="text-align: justify;">
We've been talking about science and being a scientist and girl power for a while, so I reckon it's time to get back to volcanoes. In August 2012 I went to Hawai`i for the AGU Chapman conference on Hawaiian volcanism. The lovely people at the <a href="http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov/" target="_blank">Hawaiian Volcano Observatory</a> (HVO) were nice enough to let me stay for a bit to get familiar with the volcano and to get some of their data to play with. It was also a good opportunity to catch up and collaborate with my friend and colleague <a href="https://www.uea.ac.uk/ama/research-students/profile/jessica-johnson" target="_blank">Jess Johnson</a> again. My supervisor Mark and I had decided that Kilauea would be a good volcano to study earthquake recordings.</div>
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What were we trying to achieve by studying Kilauea Volcano? The main question we had was </div>
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"Do the continuous earthquake recordings look different for different types of eruptions?"</h4>
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Intuitively one might say, of course there are differences (or at least that's what I would have said). But we wanted some real evidence. Kilauea tends to erupt most of the time, and the style of activity varies, so this was an ideal place for us to go and test our hypothesis. </div>
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I got data from the continuous recordings of earthquake activity around Kilauea volcano for an eruption in the eastern section of the volcano (called the East Rift Zone, close to a crater called Pu'u `O`o) in 2007, and a similar eruption in 2011. These eruptions were related to magma breaking and pushing open a big crack a few kilometres underground. This is called a dike intrusion.</div>
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I also got data from a series of more explosive eruptions in the western part of the volcano, close to a crater called Halema`uma`u, in 2008. During the year 2008 these explosive eruptions slowly formed a connection between the magma supply at Kilauea and the surface. Now there is a lava lake that's something like 200 m across, and visitors can no longer access the crater like they used to. The explosions probably only moved magma around that was a few 100 metres below the surface, not kilometres like in 2007 and 2011.</div>
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So we had data for two types of eruptions:</div>
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fissure eruptions in the east (i.e., lava fountains)</h4>
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vs. explosive eruptions in the west</h4>
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We used a technique called Fourier Transforms to find out what frequencies the earthquake waves were composed of at the different points in time (if you want an analogue explanation for what Fourier Transforms do check out this <a href="http://volcano-diaries.blogspot.co.uk/2013/01/in-beginning.html" target="_blank">old post</a>). That way we can make what's called a "spectrogram". You can learn a lot of things about the earthquake waves by doing that. For example, you can get an idea if the movement of the ground is from an earthquake that happened close by, or from an earthquake that was hundreds of kilometres away. The graphic below shows the seismic ground movement (the black wiggly thing) and the spectrogram (the rainbow coloured rectangle) for a few days in 2011. I've added some labels to explain in a bit more detail what we can see on it.<br />
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Seismic ground movement and "spectrogram" from Kilauea Volcano during an intrusion and fissure eruption. The coloured spectrogram shows how much of each frequency we have in the seismic wave at each point in time. Red means a lot of that frequency, blue means not a so much of that frequency. The red diagonal streaks across the graphic are the volcanic whistles, described below, where the frequency goes up (or down) over time. You can just hear the first one when you listen to the audio from the link in the text below.</td></tr>
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So by doing that we learned three main things about eruptions at Kilauea:</div>
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1) Fissure eruptions and dike intrusions at Kilauea really do generate ground movement that is different from explosive eruptions.</div>
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2) These fissure eruptions and dike intrusions show two phases of ground movement:</div>
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Phase I (purple in the graphic above): The first phase is made up of lots of short earthquakes, close to the dike intrusion and the eruption. These earthquakes are probably related to breaking the rocks when the magma pushes open the crack. </div>
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Phase II (blue in the graphic above): The second phase starts a few hours after the first phase. It doesn't have as many short earthquakes, but instead shows continuous (small) movement of the ground for a few days. This continuous movement is what we call "volcanic tremor". Phase II happens quite far away from the eruption and the dike. </div>
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3) The second phase has something called "frequency gliding" (the diagonal streaks in the graphic above). It means that the frequencies of the waves slowly change over time, a bit like a kettle on the stove that starts whistling at a higher and higher tone when the water is boiling.</div>
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To give you an idea what I'm talking about I've taken some of the ground movement and sped it up by a lot. You can play the movement that happened over roughly 1 day in just over 1 minute. That way we can actually HEAR the ground move. <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B-PMcnm3cTgwODJINVZWMVEteVk/view?usp=sharing" target="_blank">Click here</a> to listen to the earthquake activity during the 2011 eruption at Kilauea. At first you just hear some noise like the wind. That's before anything is happening. All of a sudden (around 7 seconds in) you start hearing a lot of clicking sounds, maybe like gun shots or like rain drops on a metal roof. Those are the little earthquakes during Phase I. Then it gets a bit quieter again, and then you start hearing something continuous, like a boiling kettle (around 45 seconds). That's the volcanic tremor from Phase II. If you listen really carefully you can even imagine that you're hearing the frequency gliding, i.e., the whistling getting higher and higher.</div>
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You may remember a <a href="http://www.washington.edu/news/2013/07/14/some-volcanoes-scream-at-ever-higher-pitches-until-they-blow-their-tops/" target="_blank">study in 2013 from Redoubt Volcano</a> up in Alaska. Redoubt was also whistling, for around 1-3 minutes before some of the explosions that happened there in 2009. They called it "screams". It turned out that the screams where actually little earthquakes getting closer and closer together in time, until you can't distinguish them anymore and they're just one continuous scream. </div>
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The screaming or whistling at Kilauea is quite different: It's really slow and lasts for many hours. Nobody has seen gliding that lasts this long anywhere before. Also, the little earthquakes that you can hear in the beginning actually SLOW DOWN before the whistling starts, so the explanation from Redoubt doesn't work here. Many other models that explain this type of behaviour can't produce whistling that would last for several hours, so we spent some time exploring what could generate a signal like that. In the end we decided that the Kilauea tremor and whistling may be related to bubbles in the magma: We think that it's possible that gas bubbles in the magma reservoir beneath the western crater Halema`uma`u can form "bubble clouds", or areas where lots of bubbles collect in one place. These bubble clouds can start swinging, or oscillating, if there is magma flow or something else that can start the oscillation. This swinging is transferred into the ground. When the magma flow changes (for example when a crack breaks open somewhere else in the system, like the dikes in 2007 and 2011) the frequency of the bubble cloud tone can change, and produce the whistling that we observe. </div>
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To know whether that is actually what was happening at Kilauea we would need some more info, for example a detailed study of where exactly the whistling was coming from on the volcano. However, it was still really interesting to see how by comparing the earthquake recordings from several different eruptions we were able to identify similarities and differences, and how that - in combination with other observations during those eruptions - made it quite tricky to come up with possible explanations for what we observed. Many studies focus on just one eruption, but we showed that we can learn a lot by looking at the bigger picture.</div>
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If you're still reading this you really must have a lot of spare time, so feel free to check out the <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014JB011596/full" target="_blank">journal article</a> that we wrote about all this.</div>
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Katharina Unglerthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06321857721854778415noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5068944439887709976.post-78892334193844617612015-02-19T09:33:00.000-08:002015-02-19T09:33:49.478-08:00Want more like this? Check out Science Borealis!Good news! The Volcano Diaries are now part of the Science Borealis network - lots of awesome blogs about all sorts of science and related topics in Canada or by Canadian based writers. Click on the image on the right to explore the Science Borealis world.Katharina Unglerthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06321857721854778415noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5068944439887709976.post-55136974321234345542015-02-05T07:30:00.000-08:002015-02-05T07:30:02.357-08:00Being a scientist - Like a girl<div style="text-align: justify;">
The stereotypical geoscientist is, of course, a geologist. And if you're imagining this geologist you might be seeing a man with a lot of facial hair who spends all day hiking around the mountains in trekking shorts and hiking boots, equipped with a compass, a rock hammer, and a hand lens. Geologists like him are maybe what Sheldon Cooper refers to as <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6H1mMpCpIcA" target="_blank">"the dirt people"</a>. I hate to break it to you: Geoscientists come in all shapes and sizes.</div>
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First and foremost, there are tons of awesome lady geos out there. Think <a href="http://www.victoria.ac.nz/sgees/about/staff/martha-savage" target="_blank">Martha Savage</a>, who is one of THE people to talk to about seismic anisotropy (or in other words, the fact that earthquake waves can sometimes travel faster in one direction than another, for example), and a brilliant supervisor on top of that. Think Linda Elkins-Tanton, a very inspiring planetary scientist who spent some years in business before going back to grad school and a little while later ended up as the Director of the Department of Terrestrial Magnetism at the Carnegie Institution of Washington (she is now at <a href="http://sese.asu.edu/people/lindy-elkins-tanton" target="_blank">Arizona State</a>, also check out this <a href="https://womeninplanetaryscience.wordpress.com/2013/03/14/dr-lindy-elkins-tanton-let-go-of-the-myth-that-a-successful-scientist-follows-a-certain-path/" target="_blank">blog post</a> about her time at DTM, and yes, planetary scientists are also geos in a wider sense). Or, if you're more into popular science, this would be a good place for a shout out to my former fellow UBC student <a href="http://spacemika.kinja.com/" target="_blank">Mika McKinnon</a>, who writes awesome geo-related content for <a href="http://space.io9.com/">space.io9.com</a>. All these ladies, and so many more, are doing awesome things in the name of science - and defeating the stereotype. The campaign <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/LikeAGirl?src=hash" target="_blank">#LikeAGirl</a>, which got a little attention boost this weekend after it was aired during the Superbowl, is a great example of how important the fight against these kinds of stereotypes is. And it works even better if we have examples for how to do it, if we find women we can look up to and respect for their achievements. Similar to the Like A Girl <a href="http://www.always.com/en-us/likeagirl.aspx?utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=Always_Search_Brand+Advocacy.Cannon&utm_term=like%20a%20girl&utm_content=sumpm9RHa|dc_like%20a%20girl_e_62460598988" target="_blank">campaign</a>, a few months ago some women in science took it upon them to promote the fact that, yes, you can be a girl of any kind (manicured or not) and do great science. Check out some of the tweets:</div>
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Fluorescent calcite (orange), willemite (green), and nails (purple/white, <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%24OPI&src=ctag">$OPI</a> UV topcoat)! <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/science?src=hash">#science</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/manicuremonday?src=hash">#manicuremonday</a> <a href="http://t.co/rz6Gt57v6T">pic.twitter.com/rz6Gt57v6T</a><br />
— Ashley Pagnotta (@ashpags) <a href="https://twitter.com/ashpags/status/493772000201302016">July 28, 2014</a></blockquote>
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Science means reading a lot of papers and doing a lot of highlighting. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/manicuremonday?src=hash">#manicuremonday</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/science?src=hash">#science</a> <a href="http://t.co/GRM75N0g32">pic.twitter.com/GRM75N0g32</a><br />
— Aly Baumgartner (@kyrietree) <a href="https://twitter.com/kyrietree/status/486230703663624192">July 7, 2014</a></blockquote>
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The rainy season has begun! And many critters have returned, like this beautiful beetle! <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/science?src=hash">#science</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/ManicureMonday?src=hash">#ManicureMonday</a> <a href="http://t.co/Gk6T8Iu1qE">pic.twitter.com/Gk6T8Iu1qE</a><br />
— Erin McKiernan (@emckiernan13) <a href="https://twitter.com/emckiernan13/status/470995448103043072">May 26, 2014</a></blockquote>
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Some people complained that this campaign hijacked a hashtag that was maybe meant for young girls. I have to disagree. In a hijacking something is taken away. Showing how you can have hands #LikeAGirl and be an amazing scientist at the same time is hardly taking something away. Quite the opposite, I think it's a great add on.</div>
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Being a girl in science is a blessing and a curse. Depending on the field you may be surrounded by the older men, who may or may not think that you are where you belong. In one of my undergrad classes there were 6 of us - 4 guys and 2 girls. We had to take turns in walking through our homework assignments at the blackboard in front of the professor and the rest of the class. When the guys had their turns we all listened to what they had to say and worked on the problem of the assignment. When the other girl or I had our turns we had to write out our solution while the prof was sitting down and making comments along the lines of "Pfff, girls, they don't belong in science, not a clue what they're doing". In the end, our final grade was down to written work, and he had no choice but to give me the top grade in the class alongside one of the guys. When we came to pick up our exams and get our grades he made a big point to congratulate my (male) friend (who got the other top grade). After my friend pointed out to the prof that I had gotten the same grade the prof started stuttering and mumbling something like "yeah, but you were better". I can only laugh about this guy. Of course this is only a minor problem compared to some other stories, and definitely nothing that would have kept me from doing what I set out to do. But you never know. From being ignored through harassed to assaulted - sadly we've heard it all. </div>
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On the other hand, being a girl comes with certain (legit) advantages. In many scientific disciplines we are far from a gender balance, especially when it comes to leadership positions. According to the <a href="http://www.americangeosciences.org/sites/default/files/StatusoftheWorkforce2011overview.pdf" target="_blank">2011 report</a> from the American Geoscience Institute, only 30% of the US geosciences workforce are women, even though girls get 40% of the geoscience degrees. That means that if you decide to stay in the field as a woman, you might have slightly better chances compared to a guy with the same qualifications, just because of the "minority" status women have. This advantage may sound unfair to some guys, and it really is, but sadly, until we have a gender balance or something close to it (particularly at the leadership level) I don't think we can afford to not implement this kind of decision making. </div>
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All the same applies not to just to gender, but also to ethnicity, social background, age, and who knows what. Ultimately, I'm going to be optimistic and say that maybe one day we can be balanced scientific society, where hiring decisions are made on scientific merit alone. I hope that the little girls of today, like those in the Like A Girl <a href="http://www.always.com/en-us/likeagirl.aspx?utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=Always_Search_Brand+Advocacy.Cannon&utm_term=like%20a%20girl&utm_content=sumpm9RHa|dc_like%20a%20girl_e_62460598988" target="_blank">campaign</a> (also check out this great <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/02/03/why-like-a-girl-is-so-important_n_6598970.html?ncid=tweetlnkushpmg00000067" target="_blank">article</a>) will grow up and run, throw, drive, laugh, cry, sing, do maths, paint, dance, play football - like girls who came into a world with a little less stereotyping. I personally tend to do things to the best of my abilities and knowing when to accept defeat - I run like me (not very far), throw like me (not even 5 meters), do science like me (lots of volcanoes and computers involved), and I stand up for myself like me: According to my dad, my teacher in primary school once told him a story from a field trip where the boys treated one of the girls in some unfair way, so that little 8-year old me ended up scolding them all so vigorously that the whole episode made a lasting impression in the teacher's mind for over a decade (and maybe it's still in there...). I think I stuck to that habit, and I'm not planning on letting go any time soon. #LikeAGirl</div>
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Katharina Unglerthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06321857721854778415noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5068944439887709976.post-32060421917397565582015-01-18T20:49:00.000-08:002015-01-18T20:54:13.099-08:00A road to studying volcanoes<div style="text-align: justify;">
Whether I'm at a party or talking to strangers on a plane - the question "What do you do for a living?" is almost always followed at one point or another by "How did you get into that?".</div>
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Sometimes I even ask myself this question. Ten years ago, when I finished high school (yes, I'm that old...), I certainly didn't have the faintest idea that life was going to take me right to this point. Yet, here I am. So whether you're curious about my path, or trying to determine whether it's the right one for you, let's explore how I ended up in the here and now. </div>
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1. Geophysics.</div>
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In Germany, geophysics isn't really much on people's radar. Having grown up there, it wasn't on mine either. When I was little, maybe 7 or so, I thought whales and dolphins were really cool, so I wanted to be a marine biologist (yep, 7-year old me was that specific). A couple years later, inspired by who-knows-what, I thought archeologist would be a better idea. This phase was soon followed by my Egyptologist period, when I loved everything from scarabs to hieroglyphics, and was extremely excited about finally getting history classes in school in grade 6. What I didn't realize at the time was that all these lines of employment (or lack thereof?) have something in common: I've always loved to study things, alive (dolphins) or dead (neanderthal men, pharaohs), and I've always loved mysteries. In a way, this is what science is all about: solving puzzles. </div>
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The closer I got to the end of high school the more urgent became the question of what I thought I was going to do with my life. I had lots of favourite subjects in school - languages, maths, physics, and geography - which didn't make the choice any easier. I took tests in newspapers which were supposed to give me the answer. Needless to say, even though the results brought some interesting ideas they didn't solve the problem. In the end, my Mom - inadvertently - gave me the deciding clue. She asked me whether maybe I would enjoy studying meteorology. Her suggestion didn't throw me into complete ecstasy, but was worth taking into consideration, so I flipped open the "career bible", a book published by the German Employment Agency every year summarizing almost any study or career choice you can imagine. The page about meteorology read somewhat interesting, but it really hit me when I flipped to the next page and saw the headline "geophysics". You mean you can combine all the cool topics from geography with physics and that is actually a thing? Even better, they offered a program in Munich, really close to where I grew up. My first decision was made: I was going to give this at least a try.</div>
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I looked up a professor in the geophysics department in Munich, Heiner Igel, and sent him an email. For some magical reason he agreed to meet me if I was going to come to Munich to pay the department a visit. In retrospect I realize that this was probably a very special and amazing act of friendliness of him - which professor takes time to meet with a high school student who may or may not be interested in his subject? He invited me into his office, told me about his research and then took me to one of his classes. It was a 3rd year class or so, everything was in English, and little high school me only understood about 25% of what was going, but those 25% really captured my attention. After the class, he introduced me to two of his Master's students who added the final bit: You could go hiking in the mountains, or travel to remote destinations for work? I was in! I signed up for a geosciences Bachelors degree.</div>
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2. "Fernweh" - or The nomad story.</div>
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During my high school years I had already wanted to go overseas - it just never worked out. Ok, I had done 3 student exchange/language school visits to England and 1 to France, but it just wasn't enough. I needed more. A mapping field trip to the Italian island of Elba and a volcanology field trip to the Canaries just made my travel bug more impatient. I needed to go somewhere - far away! And indeed, for my Master's degree I ended up about as far away from Germany as you can get: New Zealand! I had worked hard for about a year and a half, contacting geosciences departments, applying for scholarships, university housing, etc, before I finally stepped onto that plane into the big unknown. The fact that I didn't know a single person in this country on the other side of the world that I had never been to that was going to be my home for the next 2 years certainly added to the adventure. I loved Wellington as soon as I got there, but a disappointment was waiting for me at the university: The funding for the project I was supposed to work on hadn't been approved (just another day in academia, as I now know). My supervisor, Martha Savage, encouraged me to chat with people in the department and read some papers before deciding what to do instead. My life was about to take another unexpected turn: I was about to find out that I had a passion for volcanoes. Sure, there was the volcanology field trip to the Canaries, but it wasn't until now that I realized that, yes, I can study volcanoes if I want to. ME! For real.</div>
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The next two years flew by, and I was so busy exploring this awesome little country and its surroundings (Samoa! Australia!) that I hadn't noticed that - somewhere along the way - I had lost my plan to go back to Germany after my degree was done. I had milked my New Zealand visa as much as I could, and left the country on the last day I was legally allowed to be there. I said goodbye with one crying and one laughing eye: I was about to leave my dear friends and my dear Wellington and my dear kiwi land behind, but only to embark on a new adventure. I had signed up for a PhD in Vancouver, Canada. When I had visited Vancouver that spring, I think the new vibe combined with the odd familiarity had influenced my decision: This was a new city, a new country, and yet there were the familiar elements of nature so similar to New Zealand (water. trees. mountains. whales. birds.) and the ever friendly people who softly tickled my about-to-be-missed kiwiness with their always present "eh". This is my 4th year in Canada.</div>
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Of course the traveling didn't stop there: Pretty much all of geosciences are so small that conferences happen all over the world, that at any given moment you're likely to work with people from as many different countries as you can count. I've had the luxury and pleasure to travel to Austria, Italy, Spain, Australia, Japan, Mexico, Ecuador, and to 9 different states in the US (Alaska, Hawai`i, Washington state, Oregon, California, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Washington DC) all for work related reasons, and I've had the chance to live and work on research vessels twice. Do I need to say more?</div>
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3. Geoscience - an allrounder</div>
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In geoscience, a field that goes back centuries, you can be a lab rat, an outdoors man (or woman), a computer geek, an explorer, a big picture thinker, a writer, a talker, a listener - it doesn't matter. There is a place for everyone. Geoscience turned out to be the perfect combination for my needs: I get to travel, speak different languages, work with people from all over the world, and help to unravel mysteries that affect our every day lives. These mysteries are visible (eruptions!), we can feel some of them (earthquakes!), and yet they are strangely fleeting, almost intangible, and continue to astound!<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgx-WM1bNk55empilrwMlLSMtuLxp5SZ7C0M-yNr_Ykq7Xor5pT0njdAcbv12KqwsXTyL2et3auE4G7ZuzeWF7Uh0HWTU9M9UwSKlmpe4ikcL55oi1MK5l2-SU-rVXVhU3a7TS_582bn4ov/s1600/DSC02504+-+Version+2.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgx-WM1bNk55empilrwMlLSMtuLxp5SZ7C0M-yNr_Ykq7Xor5pT0njdAcbv12KqwsXTyL2et3auE4G7ZuzeWF7Uh0HWTU9M9UwSKlmpe4ikcL55oi1MK5l2-SU-rVXVhU3a7TS_582bn4ov/s1600/DSC02504+-+Version+2.JPG" height="424" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">At Cotopaxi Volcano in Ecuador last November. Can you tell my excitement? Photo credit: James Hickey</td></tr>
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Katharina Unglerthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06321857721854778415noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5068944439887709976.post-21295863061093430582014-12-04T21:52:00.003-08:002014-12-04T21:52:42.764-08:00Saint Barbara - or why geoscientists are a celebratory bunch<div style="text-align: justify;">
Today is December 4th, which is known in many places as the day of Saint Barbara, or simply "Barbara Day". Traditionally, at least in Germany, we cut a couple twigs of our Forsythia in the backyard (the "Barbara twigs"), and put them in the living room in a vase. The 20 days until Christmas and the warmth of the room are just enough to make the pretty little flowers of the Forsythia twigs come out in time for Christmas Eve. The bright yellow flower blossom is supposed to be a sign of good luck for the new year.</div>
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Now you're gonna be sitting there thinking:</div>
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<b><span style="color: #3d85c6;">Why the heck is she telling us about some Saint and a plant and Christmas traditions?</span> </b></div>
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Turns out the Saint after which December 4th is named, Saint Barbara of Nicomedia (Turkey), is the patron saint of miners, and generally of people who work (and/or live?) in the mountains. The legend behind this can be told in a few sentences: Barbara (your average teenage girl in the 200th century) decided to be a Christian, her father didn't like it, she fled town and hid in a crack in the rocks, was found, was killed, but then her father was killed by lightning... in other words, the usual. She may be the patron saint for miners because of the lightning, or because of her hiding place in the rock. </div>
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What matters more is the fact that if she is the patron saint for miners and other people in the mountains, that includes - by extension - the geologists/volcanologists, and maybe even geophysicists. When you're doing your geosciences undergrad degree in Munich, you sure don't wanna miss the legendary "Barbarafest". Every year in early December (not always exactly on the 4th...), all the geology/geosciences/geophysics students get together for a night of partying in honor of our good old friend Saint Barbara. Of course, as you can imagine, a lot of the original story behind this tradition is lost, but in spirit we're definitely honoring her by having all sorts of geology related fun. Despite the fact that my undergraduate years were quite a while back, I still remember the Barbara celebrations very vividly. Even more so, my memory got refreshed recently: My awesome little cousin is following in my footsteps and getting a geosciences undergrad in Munich. Go, Jara! She's a first-year, so like every first-year before her (including myself) she will have to go through the "geology baptism". Geologists are a happy, sometimes slightly alcoholic bunch, so the baptism will most definitely include some minor (?) drinking components. Of course, geology challenges like using your rock hammer in an (entirely non-)appropriate manner and other fun activities are included - all thanks to our good old friend, Saint Barbara. Sounds like fun to you? Make sure you don't go too crazy at the Barbarafest though, you might wanna have some left-over energy for the famous "Geolaus" celebration on December 6th, just next door at the other university in Munich. Of course, taking place in deeply catholic Bavaria and all, this celebration is also in memory of one of our good old Saints, this time we're talking about Saint Nicholas (Bishop of Myra). But maybe we'll save this story for another time...</div>
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You see, geoscientists in Germany are clearly very conscious of important religious occasions, long-lived and beloved traditions, and they are generally quite a happy and welcoming bunch (assuming that you survive the geology baptism...). Do geoscientists in other countries have the same celebrations? Or are there even more Saints that are celebrated by geologists worldwide?</div>
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One final little curious detail: Some sources say that Barbara is also one of the patron saints in Sicily, because she is believed to have protected the town of Catania from Etna's lava flows. So basically one could say she's also a volcano saint. Who knew? Maybe I should be putting her picture in the corner of my blog.</div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-lGsf2urBg_c/VIFF8iUyvwI/AAAAAAAAHoY/Pzc7UPFkPK0/s1600/400px-Sankt_Johann_(bei_Mayen)_Johannes_Baptist5919.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-lGsf2urBg_c/VIFF8iUyvwI/AAAAAAAAHoY/Pzc7UPFkPK0/s1600/400px-Sankt_Johann_(bei_Mayen)_Johannes_Baptist5919.JPG" height="640" width="425" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">A photo of a church window depicting Saint Barbara and a miner or mason (who could equally be a geologist... I mean, look at the hammer!). Photo: GFreihalter</td></tr>
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<span style="font-size: xx-small;">Sources:</span><br />
<span style="font-size: xx-small;">http://www.katholisch.de/de/katholisch/glaube/unser_kirchenjahr/weihnachtsfestkreis/heilige_barbara.php </span><br />
<span style="font-size: xx-small;">http://www.heiligenlexikon.de/BiographienB/Barbara.htm</span><br />
<span style="font-size: xx-small;">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saint_Barbara</span>Katharina Unglerthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06321857721854778415noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5068944439887709976.post-19787327326091660072014-10-26T17:07:00.000-07:002014-10-26T17:07:55.937-07:00The art of surviving a week of conferencing<div style="text-align: justify;">
Last week we had the Geological Society of America (GSA) 2014 Annual Meeting in Vancouver. I hadn't been to this particular conference before, mainly because the focus is more on geology than geophysics. But you only get so many chances to have a meeting in your own city, so I figured I'd give it a shot. Turns out it was a really good decision! As I'm sure many of you will know, it's quite exhausting to spend all day listening to presentations, looking at posters, seeing hundreds or thousands of faces, meeting new people, catching up with friends you only see once a year and so much more. With the conference being so close to my home, it was great to come home to my own bed every evening and to have a few minutes to wind down and process everything. But I'm getting ahead of myself. The American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting is coming up in a few weeks, so maybe this post will be useful for some of you out there! Of course the items on this list apply to any field or conference, and they are by no means exhaustive.</div>
But let's start in the beginning.<br />
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<b>Preparation. </b>Start your conference preparation way before the conference. Many conferences have a short course/field trip/professional development program around the actual conference dates. These things fill up fast, so look at the program and decide what you want to do early on (and sign up!). Often these events have discounts if you sign up early, so that's another bonus. On the weekend before GSA I sacrificed my Saturday and Sunday for two things: A science communication short course, and student-industry-networking program. Both of them were great! Which brings me to the next topic:</div>
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<b>Decide on a theme.</b> Conferences are really bad for people like me, who sometimes try to do everything. There are so many opportunities and interesting things going that it's usually impossible to take advantage of everything. The first step can be to choose a few sessions and sit all the way through them, instead of picking individual talks. You avoid running around trying to find rooms at the last minute, missing half of the talk you really wanted to see because the previous one in a different room ran late, and often the talks with the least appealing titles turn out to be the best. It can also help to identify a theme for yourself. For example for the GSA meeting my theme was "professional development". That mainly meant a lot of networking for me, exploring career options, and signing up for short courses (see Preparation) corresponding to that theme. That also meant that I probably missed out on some really cool science, but something always has to give. And because the meeting was more geology focused that probably wasn't as big of a deal as it could have been for another meeting. And of course your "theme decision" doesn't mean that you can't do anything outside of the theme, it just helps to focus your attention and time. </div>
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<b>Do some pre-conference research. </b>There might be a person attending the conference with exactly the kind of job you could see yourself in. Or the researcher who came up with this awesome method that you've been using already, but that you still have some questions about. Or your friend from your undergrad who now lives on a different continent and whom you haven't seen in 3 years. There are lots of reasons to look at the conference program ahead of time. When you see somebody in the program that you would like to meet, get in touch with them before the conference, and maybe you can arrange a meeting over a coffee, in a specific session, or over dinner (see Have fun). </div>
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<b>Check for volunteering options.</b> Some conferences give students the opportunity to get involved. That could for example be a contribution to the planning of the actual meeting, or some student or social events around it, which of course works well if the meeting is happening close to where you live. Another option is to volunteer your time during the conference. GSA was the second meeting that I volunteered for, after the IUGG (International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics) General Assembly in Melbourne in 2011. Both meetings offered free registration in exchange for a certain number of volunteer hours (10 hours in the case of GSA), so there is another incentive. I spent my 10 hours doing two mornings at the registration desk. Even though it forced me to get out of bed extremely early, it was a great way to keep networking (see Decide on a theme). The registration desk was in a central location, so I got to meet lots of people in person who I previously only knew by name, saw some old friends that I hadn't seen in ages, and made new connections (for example I met an artist who uses her artwork to communicate timelines of glacier recession - how cool is that?). And if nothing else, there is no better way to start a conference than with a friendly face and a nice little chat when you pick up your badge, so hopefully I made at least a few people's days a bit brighter. The networking aspect opens up another topic:</div>
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<b>Bring business cards.</b> You might think that as a student why would I need a business card? Turns out it's maybe even more important as a student than at a later stage (despite the fact that you don't have a business...). Networking is all about being interested in other people, them being interested in you, and most importantly to leave a lasting impression. You never know when you might meet a person again, and in what situation. That doesn't just apply to professionals in your field who are higher up the food chain, but even more so to your fellow students. They will be your future colleagues, and relationships between colleagues - even in different disciplines - can go a long way. I've been to many conferences before, and never thought about the business card thing. Man, do I wish I had. How many times have you been at a conference, awkwardly scribbling down somebody's email address on a random piece of paper, only to lose it or to be unable to read your own writing after the fact? Business cards are a simple, tidy way to keep track of all the people you meet over the course of a conference, and a great way for them to remember you, too.</div>
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<b>Wear your name tag somewhere easily visible.</b> When I went to my first conference I thought it was maybe not super fashionable how everyone runs around with a name tag around their neck. Turns out it's actually super important though. You want people you meet to have a visual of your name, to help you to leave a potentially lasting impression. That applies even more when you have somewhat complicated/foreign/rare name (I can't expect non-German speakers to automatically make the connection from "Ka-tee" to "Kathi", but I also refuse to anglicize my name. The name tag does help.). Also, for the slightly not so tall ones among us, it's good to tie a knot into lanyard or pin your name tag to the side of your scarf or the collar of your blazer. Nothing more awkward than somebody having to bent down in front of your crotch to read your name...</div>
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<b>Dress well.</b> The dress code of course depends highly on your field. In earth sciences, at most conferences you'll find everything from hiking boots and trekking pants to suit and tie/business skirt, blouse and blazer. I usually try to dress nicely, I tend to avoid my track pants and hoodies and leave those for winding down time at home. Another factor is your "theme" (see Decide on a theme): Because my main goal during GSA was to make some connections, I decided to go for business outfits. Not only does a tidy, professional look open doors, it also shows some respect for the people you are meeting with. And you never know who that might be... A good rule of thumb is to dress one level higher than the people you are trying to connect with. That also applies for interviews and similar situations, of course. A business outfit doesn't mean that you have to give up your personality though. I personally love bright colors, so I combined my grey business skirt and black top and blazer with a colorful necklace and shoes. A scarf is also a great way to add some color and/or personality, without violating the respect rule too much. Obviously that doesn't work so well in the summer, but you get the gist.</div>
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<b>Follow up.</b> That one is a simple one - when you meet somebody interesting make sure to follow up with a short email on the day, just to refresh their memory. Following up, of course, requires some time in the evening set aside for that purpose, which leads to this:</div>
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<b>Say no.</b> Sometimes you'll have to say no. There are so many things going on at conferences, from project meetings through evening receptions and dinners/drinks with old and new friends. Once in a while it's good to say no. Set aside 1-2 hours in the evening to be able to wind down, process all the awesome experiences, and follow up on anything that the day brought (see Follow up). During GSA, my advantage was that the meeting was only a 15 minute bus ride from home, so it was easy to go home and relax after a long day at the conference (7 AM start on two days!).</div>
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<b>Say yes. </b>Sometimes you'll have to say yes. There will always be surprises, opportunities you didn't expect. Show your face at the reception you've been invited to, even if it's only for an hour or so. Go to sessions that you wouldn't usually go to because it's completely out of your field. I went to a lunchtime presentation about Spacecraft Landing Site Identification on Mars at the GSA meeting, and learned that they use some of the same methodology that I use, despite a complete lack of overlap of my research with theirs. How cool is that? I'll definitely look over the edge of my plate a bit more and try to learn something from other disciplines. </div>
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Last but not least, the most important thing:<br />
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<b>Have fun!</b> Yes, the conference is the reason why your supervisor paid for your flight, your hotel, and your food. But that doesn't mean that you have to exhaust yourself to the point of collapse by day 3, when the conference lasts for another 2 days. Instead, pick a morning or afternoon with somewhat less relevant sessions and explore the city that you're in. Go to a museum. Or do your Xmas shopping. Use some time to catch up with old friends over a beer or some food. Or spend some time getting to know new people. During GSA, I went to a tweet-up, for example. Another Vancouver-based scientist, <a href="http://www.geomika.com/blog/" target="_blank">Mika McKinnon</a>, had booked a table at a pub close to the convention center, and invited fellow science-y social media people to meet up. We overcame some initial problems (nobody knew each other by their real name, so introductions didn't mean much... in the end we had to introduce each other by our twitter handles) and had a good time chatting over some beers. I can now say that I have met <a href="http://www.wired.com/author/erikvolc/" target="_blank">Erik Klemetti</a> - my blogging idol - in person :) I also managed to have dinner with my friend <a href="http://ceoas.oregonstate.edu/profile/lerner/" target="_blank">Allan</a> and some of his friends, so now I know a few people from Oregon. </div>
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Doing all these things is a great way to wind down a bit (see Say no), to be refreshed after a little break and to take in more science in the following sessions. Conferences are so much more fun if you put a little bit of effort into spending time away from the meeting itself! I can't wait to learn about more exciting science, meet fascinating people, and catch up with old and new friends during AGU in December!</div>
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<br />Katharina Unglerthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06321857721854778415noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5068944439887709976.post-87323276447457648922014-10-05T17:02:00.000-07:002014-10-05T17:02:13.543-07:00Iceland vs. Japan - the art of eruption forecasting<div style="text-align: justify;">
Finally I'm getting around to writing a new post, after I've taken my summer break since the end of the last term.</div>
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Work is in full swing again, undergrads are back, and campus is as busy as ever. After some intense work over the summer I managed to finally submit my manuscript about Hawai`i tremor. Fingers crossed that it gets accepted!</div>
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In the meantime, lots of volcano-y things have been happening, so an update is well overdue. Everybody has heard about the eruption of Bárdabunga, of course. We know that a dike (a vertical crack in the rocks, filled with magma) pushed its way through the Earth's crust for quite some time, before it reached the surface and started a stunning fissure eruption. How do we know that? Because lots of earthquakes happened underground where the dike was breaking its way up! But all this is, of course, yesterday's news - and I'm sure many of you have read tons about this eruption and seen some of the spectacular videos and photos.</div>
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Another big event was the eruption of Ontake-san last weekend. Pretty much out of the blue this volcano started to erupt explosively - and in the process sadly took many lives. Volcano disaster wise in Japan, this is about as bad as the 1991 eruption of Unzen, which killed over 40 people. After the Ontake eruption some people claimed that the disaster could have been avoided. But the truth is, from what I've seen in terms of data it was very difficult, or maybe even impossible, to see this coming. Why is that?</div>
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1. The eruption appears to have been a so-called "<b>phreatic</b>" eruption. That means that instead of magma pushing upwards through the crust, water was seeping into the volcano. This (cold) water probably reached a hotter region underground, where it immediately turned into steam. This steam wanted to rise and expand - it increased the pressure underground which then lead to the explosive eruption. A very similar thing happens in your kitchen: Have you ever heated up a pan or pot without anything in it, and then poured water onto the hot surface? You immediately get a big sizzle and lots of steam.</div>
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When scientists analyze the ash from this eruption, they will probably find mostly fragments from old rock that was broken into ash, and probably not many fresh magma pieces. Because no (or very little) fresh magma pushes upwards during these kinds of eruptions usually there aren't many precursors. No large numbers of earthquakes like we had in Iceland just a few weeks earlier, no big changes of the shape of the volcano like there was before the eruption of Mount St. Helens in 1980. </div>
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2. That "nothing" was happening on the volcano before the eruption is not 100% true. Since mid September there had been some more earthquakes than usual. However, the highest numbers were recorded on Sep 10 and 11, and they went down again afterwards. Furthermore, these "seismic crises" aren't unusual on volcanoes. Ontake had very similar periods with increased earthquake activity for example in the mid 90s, without eruptions following. Other volcanoes such as Long Valley caldera in California frequently have earthquake swarms - the latest one just a <a href="http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/observatories/calvo/" target="_blank">week ago</a>, yet it hasn't erupted in the last 10,000 years or longer. Based on what we know about volcanoes, earthquake swarms CAN mean an eruption is coming, but they don't mean that an eruption HAS to happen. Often other warning signs accompany or follow earthquake swarms, in which cases eruptions become easier to forecast. These other warning signs could be a change on the volcano shape because of magma pushing rock out of the way, or more gases coming out of the volcano. Whereas in Iceland we had some idea what was gonna happen, in Japan we just couldn't see it coming. Despite all our research and efforts, unfortunately we aren't at a point where we can completely understand and forecast the processes happening below our feet in volcanically active areas.</div>
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In the case of Ontake, around 10 minutes before the eruption started another earthquake-like signal showed up on the instruments: Volcanic tremor. I've talked about tremor in one of my very early <a href="http://volcano-diaries.blogspot.ca/2013/01/in-beginning.html" target="_blank">posts</a>, but it might be time for a little update.</div>
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Volcanic tremor is a little bit like an earthquake, but with two main differences:</div>
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<li>Tremor ground oscillations are usually a little bit "slower" than earthquake ground oscillations: Whereas earthquake oscillations go back and forth anywhere between say 1 and 25 or more times per second, tremor oscillations only make it up to 5 or 10 times per second for one full cycle of back and forth.</li>
<li>Tremor can go on for a really long time: Whereas earthquakes are usually over after a seconds, tremor can last for minutes, or hours, or days.</li>
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Luckily tremor usually only happens very close to the volcano, and the shaking is very small, so people don't usually feel it - otherwise shaking going on for several days or longer might be quite annoying. Yet, we can record these oscillations on our seismometers and usually when we see them we keep a good eye on the volcano to make sure we don't miss any eruption warning signs. Something like 2/3 of all tremor cases happen just before or during eruptions - but that also means that 1/3 of tremor cases don't appear to have anything to do with eruptions. That's why tremor isn't a very reliable warning sign - certainly worth to keep an eye out for but not a unique sign that something is about to happen. Lots of people have had ideas about what causes this tremor signal, but unfortunately many of these studies don't agree with each other, or only work for one specific volcano. In my research I study tremor from volcanoes in lots of different places: Hawai`i, Alaska, Latin America, ... I am trying to find out whether there are different tremor "types", that can tell us more about what causes tremor in different places. That way, maybe one day it will be easier for us to know whether the tremor that we record on our instruments is just harmless, or whether it tells us to get the hell out - and maybe disasters like the Ontake one can be avoided in the future!</div>
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What happened at Ontake is certainly worrying - after all there are lots of other volcanoes in the world and other "blue sky eruptions" (i.e. without clear warning signs) might happen elsewhere. Some people here in the Pacific Northwest started to worry a bit, and a radio station got in touch with Mark and me to check whether they could ask some questions in a radio interview. Of course I said yes, after all I love talking about volcanoes and I thought it could be fun. I expected that they would ask me some questions and then cut it and broadcast it at some later point in time. Instead, the whole thing was a 30 minute live interview - which I only realized as we started the interview! Whoops... That made it of course slightly terrifying, after all I hadn't ever given a radio interview. I also felt a little bit weird, sitting alone on the phone in one of our meeting rooms at work and yet talking to anybody who was listening to the radio station at the time. In my surprised state I probably sounded like a complete fool, and most likely made something like 80 out of "100 mistakes scientists make when talking to the media". But what the heck, everybody has to start somewhere, after all! If you're interested you can listen to or download the <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B-PMcnm3cTgwNTBpWlRTVDVfenc/view?usp=sharing" target="_blank">podcast here</a> - don't judge me too harshly though! Thanks to Cfax 1070 and Terry Moore for hosting me - it was definitely a fun experience :)</div>
Katharina Unglerthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06321857721854778415noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5068944439887709976.post-63069642933932368042014-05-15T20:25:00.000-07:002014-05-15T20:26:30.462-07:00A little digression: Large earthquakes, Alaska in 1964, and why people in Vancouver should be prepared<div style="text-align: justify;">
Time for a little digression. Let's talk about earthquakes! I've recently come back from a conference in Anchorage, Alaska, the Annual Meeting of the Seismological Society of America. I've only ever been to general geophysics/geosciences, or volcano conferences, so this one was quite the change. Since I study a specific type of earthquakes related to volcanoes I'm a bit in between volcanology and seismology, so it made sense to go.</div>
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Around 600 or so seismologists met up to talk about earthquakes and related stuff for three days. Overall it was a great conference. The "small" number of attendees was great - it was really easy to meet lots of people with very similar interests. I also liked the fact that they provided breakfast, lunch, and dinners (mostly). One reason for that is - of course, me being a student - the free food aspect, but there is something else: When you find a table to eat you may opt to find people you know, or you can go to a random table, introduce yourself, and start some interesting science talk. Bigger meetings like AGU are great to catch up with friends in different fields, but generally tend to be more anonymous.</div>
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A highlight of the conference was the post-conference field trip. Maybe around 1/3 to 1/2 of the conference attendees got on a bunch of busses to head down south towards the Kenai Peninsula. After leaving Anchorage, we stopped in Whittier, this interesting, tiny Alaskan town. We talked about the effects of the 1964 Alaska earthquakes, one of the biggest earthquakes ever recorded.</div>
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Around 5:30 in the afternoon on Good Friday, Mar 27, 1964, an earthquake with a magnitude somewhere around 9.2-9.3 struck just East of Whittier at approximately 25 km depth. The shaking was quite intense for a few minutes, but the real damage came from landslides and a tsunami generated by the earthquake. </div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEho7T9XspCcFYAULAesKSD8H25CCVkYAr-B5L7goBHIG_AGIjgyPLPSQzNeieR8-esbnzUvgGVkrXyC7cNBOX05wfL-jk1vdejdINp9WRfJiMt26rrxil-JgP9BbdjUmCakbixaXIgPOumq/s1600/IMG_0653.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEho7T9XspCcFYAULAesKSD8H25CCVkYAr-B5L7goBHIG_AGIjgyPLPSQzNeieR8-esbnzUvgGVkrXyC7cNBOX05wfL-jk1vdejdINp9WRfJiMt26rrxil-JgP9BbdjUmCakbixaXIgPOumq/s1600/IMG_0653.JPG" height="480" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Ruins of a house that was abandoned after the earthquake in 1964, close to Girdwood, Alaska.</td></tr>
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There was a <a href="http://www.adn.com/2014/03/22/3388654/march-27-1964-the-day-the-world.html" target="_blank">heartbreaking account of one family's experience</a> of the earthquake in the Anchorage Daily News a few weeks ago. From a seismology perspective, the earthquake is interesting for one specific subfield: paleoseismology. Paleoseismologists can study the change in ground elevation during the 1964 earthquake. A large area reaching from Kodiak island in the West through Anchorage out to Valdez and further East dropped in elevation during the earthquake because of the new plate configuration. Trees in the region that were slightly above sea level before now found their roots in the salt water, and died within a short time. They can be seen as eerie ghost forests until today. </div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-OTiymANLtJs/U3RM8CF25RI/AAAAAAAAGlg/deVbE-J8u-g/s1600/STE_0658.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-OTiymANLtJs/U3RM8CF25RI/AAAAAAAAGlg/deVbE-J8u-g/s1600/STE_0658.JPG" height="480" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Ghost forest close to Girdwood, Alaska.</td></tr>
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With the trees, a bunch of grass and shrubs ended up in saltwater. They were quickly covered by sand and silt washed up by the tides, and were preserved. During the field trip, we accessed one of the marsh areas. Our field trip guide Peter Haeussler showed us that when you remove the top layer of silt at the edge of the marsh during low tide, you can see a brown peat horizon. That's the grass from the 1964 earthquake!</div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-y1cgdMOChQc/U3RNWV5bX4I/AAAAAAAAGlo/QO8OtjWM4tU/s1600/IMG_0662.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-y1cgdMOChQc/U3RNWV5bX4I/AAAAAAAAGlo/QO8OtjWM4tU/s1600/IMG_0662.JPG" height="480" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Peat horizon from the 1964 earthquake. The brown is grass and shrubs that died after they ended up in saltwater after the earthquake, the grey on top is the silt that quickly covered everything.</td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-SMdbihB6rQQ/U3RNnsQXTgI/AAAAAAAAGl4/TbEOsk8T_x0/s1600/IMG_0664.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-SMdbihB6rQQ/U3RNnsQXTgI/AAAAAAAAGl4/TbEOsk8T_x0/s1600/IMG_0664.JPG" height="480" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">A piece of grass that died when it was covered in saltwater after the ground dropped in elevation after the 1964 earthquake.</td></tr>
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If you dig down deeper you can find more horizons like that, telling tales from previous large earthquakes in the area. Fossils in those peat horizons can be dated, and we thus know approximately at what intervals large earthquakes occur. Offshore BC and the Pacific Northwest, for example, people were speculating whether large earthquakes can occur at all (there aren't many small ones like e.g. in Alaska or New Zealand). Once paleoseismology became established, people found evidence of large earthquakes offshore the West coast of North America. That's how we know! And because we know now, everybody should consider having an <a href="http://www.getprepared.gc.ca/cnt/kts/bsc-kt-eng.aspx" target="_blank">emergency kit</a> in the house. Because what we DON'T know is when the next big one is gonna strike.</div>
Katharina Unglerthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06321857721854778415noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5068944439887709976.post-57516812205015931882014-04-09T20:07:00.000-07:002014-04-10T20:24:25.175-07:00Mini series on volcano hazards - part III: More on flows<div style="text-align: justify;">
As we learned last time, if an ash cloud becomes to heavy it can collapse and generate a pyroclastic flow. Those flows are not the only ones that happen during or after volcanic eruptions.</div>
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An obvious one are lava flows. Depending on the type of volcano, lava can be sticky or runny. The sticky lava tends to be able to store more pressure, and erupt more violently when it finally does. That's what happened e.g. when Mount St. Helens erupted on May 18, 1980. More runny lava tends to erupt less explosively, instead we say the eruptions are "effusive". Of course, as always, there are exceptions to those rules, but it's a good big picture way to think about different styles of eruptions. During effusive eruptions, runny lava either just trickles out of a vent, or sometimes <a href="http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov/multimedia/uploads/multimediaFile-2.mov" target="_blank">fountains out of fissures</a>. That looks just like a fountain in the park, but with lava instead of water. <a href="http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov/multimedia/uploads/multimediaFile-1.mov" target="_blank">Here's a video</a> from Kilauea on Hawai`i, you can see lava fountaining out of a fissure, and then - curiously - disappearing into a crack in the ground.</div>
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Lava flows are a hazard, mainly because there's not that much that you can do when one shows up in your backyard, like in the photo below. Luckily, at least they're usually quite slow, so you should be able to run (or even walk) away and save yourself. </div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e0/Kalapana_house_destroyed_by_lava.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e0/Kalapana_house_destroyed_by_lava.jpg" height="400" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Lava flow in Kalapana, a now mostly abandoned village on the Big Island of Hawai`i (photo:USGS/Wikimedia Commons)</td></tr>
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So that's lava flows. But did I mention mudflows, so-called <i>lahars</i>? Those guys can be quite dangerous too. But what are they? Imagine an explosive eruption with a pyroclastic flow. That kind of eruption often happens on steep, high volcanoes which in turn have snow and ice covering them, sometimes all year round. We learned that pyroclastic flows are really hot, right? What happens to some (or all) of the snow and ice when it gets hit by a pyroclastic flow? It melts. Sometimes a lot. So now we have a lahar - a hot mix of ash, lapilli, bombs, and meltwater rushing down the mountain, sometimes as fast as a car. During that process, lahars often take out trees and other "obstacles", and the more material they carry the more obstacles they can take out, like a tsunami on land. That's exactly what happened in 1985 at Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia. The lahar that was caused by a relatively small explosive eruption was so powerful rushing down into the country surrounding the volcano that it killed over 23,000 people, and left another 10,000 injured and/or homeless. </div>
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The same thing can happen long after an eruption has stopped. After the famous eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines in 1991, not snow and ice but heavy rain started to generate mudflows by mixing with ash on the slopes of the mountain. </div>
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Below an image of a house buried by a lahar. Imagine how powerful the flow must have been!</div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.photovolcanica.com/VolcanoInfo/Chaiten/CHAI09_0543.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://www.photovolcanica.com/VolcanoInfo/Chaiten/CHAI09_0543.jpg" height="426" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">House buried during lahar, Chaiten, Chile, Dec 2009 (photo: Photovolcanica/Richard Roscoe)</td></tr>
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Let's keep in mind that these flows can happen a long time after a volcano has stopped erupting, as long as there is enough loose material on its slopes. Now we need to monitor not only the volcano, but also keep an eye on the weather to make sure we're covering all our bases. Luckily, some smart engineering can help us against this hazard. In some places, e.g. at Sakurajima in Japan, they constructed large, concrete flow channels and dams (<i>sabos</i>) to direct lahars away from villages. Even though sabos can't provide a guarantee that a lahar won't sweep away your house, they're a good start at reducing the risk linked to this particular type of volcanic hazard.</div>
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<br />Katharina Unglerthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06321857721854778415noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5068944439887709976.post-36308786724134454812014-03-28T09:56:00.000-07:002014-03-28T09:56:07.863-07:00Mini series on volcano hazards - part II: From blows to flows...<div style="text-align: justify;">
So last time we talked about the ash the comes out of the volcano when it blows its top. We said that volcanic bombs can be unpleasant when they hit you - to put it mildly. We also discovered that the ash goes up in the air and eventually (slowly) falls back down and creates some serious problems.</div>
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Now unfortunately the ash doesn't always slowly come back down to the ground. An ash cloud is a mixture of broken up pieces of magma of different sizes (remember? <i>Ash</i>, <i>lapilli</i>, and <i>bombs</i>), and a bunch of hot gases. The volcano spits out that mixture, and when there is a lot of the hot gases and not quite as much ash the mixture rises up into the air. It can go quite high, and then get transported with the wind and create a big mess for air travel (which we saw happening all the way from Iceland to Europe 4 years ago). Why does the ash cloud rise up so high? In very simple terms it's the same principle as a hot air balloon: The mixture of hot gases and ash is less dense than the surrounding air, so it rises. Sometimes, the amount of ash in the ash cloud is too much though - so the mixture can't rise. Instead it does what every heavy object does when you throw it up into the air: It comes back down, sometimes really really quickly. When this happens we call it a "pyroclastic flow" (from the Greek words for <i>fire</i> and <i>broken in pieces</i>). Check out the video from Earth Uncut TV below to see what a pyroclastic flow looks like.</div>
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As you can see in the video, these pyroclastic flows can get quite fast. With speeds of several 100 km/h, they're too fast to drive away from in a car. They're also quite hot: The mixture is almost as hot as the lava that comes of the volcano, something like 600-800˚ C. That's over 3 times hotter than the temperature in your oven when you make pizza. So imagine something that hot hits you at speeds faster than a race car. You can imagine what the outcome would be... In 1991, the Japanese volcano Unzen erupted and created a pyroclastic flow that (in)famously killed over 40 people, including Katia and Maurice Krafft, a couple of volcanologists. </div>
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Has anybody seen the movie Pompeii that came out a few weeks ago (at least in North America, some places in Europe etc might have to wait a bit longer...)? It's based on a true story of a volcanic eruption and a pyroclastic flow of Mount Vesuvius in 79 AD. The pyroclastic flow from that eruption covered the city of Pompeii and everybody in there in several meters of ash. People's bodies were preserved in that ash, and at the historic site in Italy we can still see their casts in the positions they took in the last seconds of their lives that ended so abruptly almost 2000 years ago - a stark reminder of the power of volcanic eruptions.</div>
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Below another video (timelapse, by <a href="http://www.photovolcanica.com/" target="_blank">Photovolcanica</a>) of a pyroclastic flow from Sinabung in Indonesia earlier this year. This particular one had a different trigger mechanism - the collapse of part of the volcanic edifice during the eruption. The outcome, however, can be as devastating as the pyroclastic flows generated by ash clouds. In fact, e.g. the Japanese example above was a pyroclastic flow created by a collapse of a part of the volcano.</div>
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As we will see next time, pyroclastic flows aren't the only flowing hazards on volcanoes. Water, ash, dirt, and bigger particles can create <i>lahars</i>, and of course lava itself can flow down the slopes of a volcano. But we'll save these topics for another time.</div>
Katharina Unglerthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06321857721854778415noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5068944439887709976.post-27941844066037383802014-03-24T21:39:00.001-07:002014-03-24T21:40:36.495-07:00Add on - a volcanic bomb<div style="text-align: justify;">
Just to follow up on the last post, a photo I managed to dig up from the depths of my harddrive, from our 2007 Canary Islands fieldtrip. It's a volcanic bomb, on the island of La Palma. If you look carefully you can even see structures that show that the lava was still hot and deformable when it flew out of the volcano. Wouldn't wanna get hit by that thing...</div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhcetU5ZctXzVlXKCWc8WYfTGI-8OgKhr3D2_k8_X24K3U3Tw8HlDFI-epkmgYzpD-fLZ3qVNpJqNrcyzk2tT8vgp7oNr6GfkIWAkhCtHhIIdnJWEUx3Kf4Du-hvDpqbRzAXY55IVjnYE2f/s1600/CIMG2384.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhcetU5ZctXzVlXKCWc8WYfTGI-8OgKhr3D2_k8_X24K3U3Tw8HlDFI-epkmgYzpD-fLZ3qVNpJqNrcyzk2tT8vgp7oNr6GfkIWAkhCtHhIIdnJWEUx3Kf4Du-hvDpqbRzAXY55IVjnYE2f/s1600/CIMG2384.JPG" height="480" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Volcanic bomb, La Palma, Canary Islands. Photo: K. Unglert</td></tr>
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<br />Katharina Unglerthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06321857721854778415noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5068944439887709976.post-7229178711593516192014-02-20T12:21:00.000-08:002014-02-20T12:21:19.828-08:00Mini series on volcano hazards: Ash and more<div style="text-align: justify;">
Since I was talking about eruption forecasting in the last post I think it's time to talk a bit about why we even care. Ok, we all know that volcanic eruptions can be dangerous, and that people like me are trying to understand them better, but what specifically can be a hazard during or after an eruption?</div>
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This is going to be a mini series - each post will cover a new hazard. So let's start with a very obvious one: Volcanic ash, lapilli, and bombs. What do these terms mean?</div>
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Explosive eruptions usually send pieces of rock into the air. All of the pieces smaller than 2 mm diameter are called <i>ash</i>. Everything between 2 mm and 6.4 cm is called <i>lapilli</i>, and everything larger than that is called <i>volcanic bombs</i>. Look at the photo below to see an explosion with a bunch of ash and some really large bombs.</div>
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The smaller the piece the further it can get away from the volcano - either because of the explosive power of the eruption, or because it gets carried away by wind in the atmosphere. Bombs are really dangerous when you're close to volcanic eruptions - it's probably not very healthy to get hit in the head with a 10 cm or so potentially hot rock that comes flying through the air. </div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7VD4SnSIboRXnKCvo7ojqjG5C-TdwM5RTwOP4Hm-GBt1zsWi9jdXT0k_X1RkTCwYwN64WODYUd45yNDgsWjQAzto_DCQfozRqNboqoZsLtA7mBViyBKPmAyWXpuXNsHH4si-sT4cZ36rz/s1600/IMG_0401.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7VD4SnSIboRXnKCvo7ojqjG5C-TdwM5RTwOP4Hm-GBt1zsWi9jdXT0k_X1RkTCwYwN64WODYUd45yNDgsWjQAzto_DCQfozRqNboqoZsLtA7mBViyBKPmAyWXpuXNsHH4si-sT4cZ36rz/s1600/IMG_0401.JPG" height="480" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Explosive eruption at Sakurajima Volcano, Japan, Jul 2013. You can see an ash cloud rising. Can you spot the bombs at the bottom right of the ash cloud? Look at the size of the trees and the mountain, and estimate how large the bombs must be. Definitely wouldn't wanna get too close! Photo: K.Unglert</td></tr>
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Ash is obviously also a problem close to the volcano: Imagine a huge sandstorm, but in addition particles in the ash are often also hot, and covered with acids from the gases in the eruption. Getting that in your eyes is inconvenient at best, and once you get the fine particles in your nose or lungs it only goes downhill. If you're exposed to ash from volcanic eruptions for a long time (e.g. many years living close to an erupting volcano) it can cause significant health issues. One way to make it at least a little bit better is to wear a mask that covers your face.</div>
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Unfortunately that's not the end of it. Even small layers of fine ash on e.g. air conditioning or air plane turbines cause the parts to corrode really fast - that's why airspace usually gets closed off around volcanic eruptions. Remember the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in Iceland in 2010? Very fine ash particles got blown towards Europe and a lot of people were stranded in airports for days. </div>
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Now imagine ash fall onto the roof of your house: Even a small layer, say 5 cm, can be really dangerous. Why? Well, ash - just like sand - is just tiny pieces of rock. If your roof is 10 m x10 m and has a 5 cm layer of ash on it that's a total volume of 5 cubic meters. Rock has a density of approximately 2600 kg per 1 cubic meter, so 2600 times 5 is? That's right, really really heavy! Even if the ash isn't as dense (and thus heavy) as solid rock, thin layers of ash add up to a heavy weight quite quickly. That makes building collapse a big danger.</div>
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Last but not least, there can be impacts on the economy. Ash fall covering crops can cause entire seasons to be without harvest, and animals don't find plants to feed from. Below is a photo of flowers covered in ash at Sakurajima Volcano, Japan, to give you an idea of what the ash can do. Now imagine thicker layers of ash from a bigger eruption!</div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVSv9qLvVmzpeHw4RDuKNCjgHh6zAceHa-lr-N_kBN-6PUcgKQ53-32rCuB6UXxTxt7Ljk1twKjDqqdejs-2xc7VdHOGnAuZg9Ec39G8v_3wfZjLfE2yy4SpieM3tNwHf6eE529xBDwqJZ/s1600/IMG_0451.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVSv9qLvVmzpeHw4RDuKNCjgHh6zAceHa-lr-N_kBN-6PUcgKQ53-32rCuB6UXxTxt7Ljk1twKjDqqdejs-2xc7VdHOGnAuZg9Ec39G8v_3wfZjLfE2yy4SpieM3tNwHf6eE529xBDwqJZ/s1600/IMG_0451.JPG" height="480" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Flowers covered in ash after a small explosive eruption at Sakurajima Volcano, Japan, Jul 2013. This was only a small eruption, so imagine what it must be like after a large explosive eruption! Photo: K.Unglert</td></tr>
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Now we've learned about the main dangers of ash, lapilli, and bombs being thrown out of volcanic vents during an eruption. When the ash is a bit too heavy too rise, or when the ash and the bigger pieces build up over time, they can cause more hazards (pyroclastic flows and lahars), but we're gonna hear about those another time!</div>
Katharina Unglerthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06321857721854778415noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5068944439887709976.post-59216346372735166352014-02-06T10:01:00.001-08:002014-02-06T10:01:59.312-08:00Back with a BANG: Volcanoes 2014 and eruption forecasting?<div style="text-align: justify;">
Finally the silence is over. Happy New Year to everybody - we're just gonna ignore the fact that it's already Feb 6th.</div>
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I'm gonna start the year with an issue that has come up quite a bit lately when talking with friends and family... Eruption forecasting. Yep, I said it, the dreaded term. Sad events like 15 deaths due to the latest activity at <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2014/02/03/world/asia/indonesia-volcano/" target="_blank">Mt. Sinabung in Indonesia</a> bring the forecasting topic into the focus of the public from time to time. </div>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Most recent eruption at Mt. Sinabung, Indonesia, Feb 1, 2014. Image from Twitter, @BBCBreaking.</td></tr>
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So let's look into this a bit more. We're gonna learn about what signs of volcanic activity there are are at the surface, what we can do to monitor them, and what the difficulties with forecasting are. </div>
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To explore this topic in the detail it deserves, however, we need to start with something very basic: The difference between "forecast" and "prediction". If you look up the two words in a dictionary you will most likely find little difference between their meanings, often they're even listed as synonyms of each other. In science, however, things are a little different. In particular, in seismology (the study of earthquakes) the two terms have very distinct meanings: A "forecast" assesses the likelihood of an earthquake of a certain magnitude in a given area and time span, e.g. "there is a 1 in 10 probability that a magnitude 7 earthquake will occur in the Pacific Northwest in the next 100 years" (and of course I made this one up). A prediction, in contrast, is much more specific than that, e.g. "a magnitude 7 earthquake will occur within 100 km of Vancouver on Mar 15 at 10:45 AM" (again, obviously I'm making these things up. Yes, my imagination is just wild today.). In seismology, earthquake forecasting is done quite commonly, whereas the general scientific consensus is that earthquake prediction is currently (and might always be) impossible (despite some individuals or groups claiming otherwise...). </div>
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So back to volcanoes. In volcano monitoring, people generally don't make "predictions" for when an eruption will occur. Instead, there are short-term forecasts (compared to the long-term forecasts that are usually given in seismology). These forecasts depend on how volcanic activity evolves over time. So what do we use to determine what our volcano is doing? Just like a patient in a hospital might be hooked up to a bunch of instruments measuring vital signs like heart rate, oxygen levels, and body temperature, our volcano is usually hooked up to a bunch of scientific instruments. The vital signs of a volcano are called "precursors", they are for example:</div>
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<li>Earthquakes - we usually look at how many there are say per day or hour, how big they are, at what depth they occur and whether that depth (and horizontal location) changes, and what "type" of earthquake they are. Types of earthquakes might be "regular" earthquakes with (relatively) high frequency waves, earthquakes with (relatively) low frequency waves, a mixture between the two (so-called "hybrids"), or <a href="http://volcano-diaries.blogspot.ca/2013/01/in-beginning.html" target="_blank">volcanic tremor</a>. These different types of earthquakes sometimes show how magma is moving from one place to another.</li>
<li>Deformation - how the surface of the volcano changes its shape. We use instruments on the ground and satellites images to determine whether the surface is moving upwards and inflating like when you're blowing up a balloon, or deflating like when you let the balloon go. The deformation usually happens because of a change of pressure below the ground.</li>
<li>Gases - volcanoes spit out gases in different places most of the time. The gases come - in one way or another - from the magma below the ground. The amount of gases, their temperature, and their type (e.g. sulfur dioxide or carbon dioxide) can help us to determine whether magma might be getting closer to the surface.</li>
<li>Temperature - sometimes we see higher temperatures around volcanoes on satellite images.</li>
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Usually, when we see more earthquakes per hour, a lot of deformation, a lot of gases, and high temperatures, we become worried that magma might be getting close to the surface and ready to cause an eruption. This is what we call "unrest". Volcano observatories use alert or hazard levels to put a number on the state of volcano unrest. Below are examples of two different alert/hazard level systems from two different volcano observatories (GeoNet, New Zealand; and Montserrat Volcano Observatory, Lesser Antilles):</div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpBf8oCHGIUiXpIjQHr_ClnhE3PTDwwdfJV9kpfjKcSWtKzoSxwXsGi_lpTozqVhevA6Ju9oYiX0qHE2IhbcugLyGi55dDHfgCGJDWr2zsWQdaobb0paS-F15AREr5Nxk9cJhFmWtJbt43/s1600/Screen+Shot+2014-02-03+at+9.20.07+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpBf8oCHGIUiXpIjQHr_ClnhE3PTDwwdfJV9kpfjKcSWtKzoSxwXsGi_lpTozqVhevA6Ju9oYiX0qHE2IhbcugLyGi55dDHfgCGJDWr2zsWQdaobb0paS-F15AREr5Nxk9cJhFmWtJbt43/s1600/Screen+Shot+2014-02-03+at+9.20.07+PM.png" height="248" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Alert levels for frequently active volcanoes in New Zealand (courtesy of <a href="http://info.geonet.org.nz/display/volc/Volcanic+Alert+Levels" target="_blank">GeoNet</a>)</td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0sh2KVAv-UF7pWbXjdedKpgJHxj6jHhKBMqQqRKd3rYtjUgLjqdLcgNyY9kM9y_De_IVmlvIbEpNNSoFG0guNjnKy0X0oTqGJ4vW1RHUyLHuBFOE90uq1wTpRRyw0h6MBRlYil_iKd-yu/s1600/Screen+Shot+2014-02-03+at+9.19.27+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0sh2KVAv-UF7pWbXjdedKpgJHxj6jHhKBMqQqRKd3rYtjUgLjqdLcgNyY9kM9y_De_IVmlvIbEpNNSoFG0guNjnKy0X0oTqGJ4vW1RHUyLHuBFOE90uq1wTpRRyw0h6MBRlYil_iKd-yu/s1600/Screen+Shot+2014-02-03+at+9.19.27+PM.png" height="382" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Hazard levels for Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat (courtesy of <a href="http://www.mvo.ms/pub/Hazard_Level_System/HLS-20111104.pdf" target="_blank">Montserrat Volcano Observatory</a>)</td></tr>
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You can see that Montserrat has zones in addition to the hazard levels, and access to the zones is controlled based on what the hazard level is. The way the alert/hazard level is determined depends on the observatory and the specific volcano. The assessment is based on what is known from previous eruptions, scientific studies, and sometimes from other volcanoes. </div>
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So far so good. So we now know that a volcano has vital signs like a person, and that we might be able to use them to tell us whether an eruption might be happening soon or now. But of course, things aren't that simple. Unfortunately, volcanoes are like people in another sense (not just in terms of the vital signs analogy): Sometimes they have their own mind, behave in ways that can't be anticipated, and surprise us all. Also, many volcano may look similar but have quite different behaviours from one to another. For example, on some volcanoes precursors build up over weeks or months, whereas on other volcanoes we get only short or no warning at all. Whereas many volcanoes have MORE earthquakes just before an eruption, Telica Volcano in Nicaragua, for example, sometimes goes quiet and has no more earthquakes within an hour or so before explosions (listen to Mel Rodger's recent <a href="http://hwcdn.libsyn.com/p/f/7/c/f7ce2d2bf3d20731/Volcano_Mel.mp3?c_id=6758975&expiration=1391488925&hwt=660f7d2b86559fc760418a3b38ca14b5" target="_blank">podcast</a> on this). Similarly, whereas many volcanoes inflate before eruptions, Uturuncu Volcano in Bolivia has been inflating quite a lot for over 10 years without an eruption (read James Hickey's <a href="http://betweenarock.co.uk/fieldwork/whats-up-in-bolivia/" target="_blank">blogpost</a> on this).</div>
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And just like we have good days and bad days, even one volcano can change its behaviour from one eruption to the next. Obviously in that case we're gonna have a hard time making a good forecast. </div>
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Furthermore, the situation is complicated by people. One would think that it's always better to be safe than sorry, so ideally we would move everybody who lives close to a volcano to a safe place? Obviously that's quite unrealistic. Some countries have so many volcanoes that there simply would be no space at all to put people: On the website of the <a href="http://www.volcano.si.edu/search_volcano_results.cfm" target="_blank">Global Volcanism Program</a>, a search for volcanoes in Indonesia returns 1182 matches. Granted, some of them might be individual cones on one bigger volcano, or synonyms for different craters and cones, but the number is still really really large if we were to take those duplicates out. Where would we move all the people living close to those volcanoes? We also can't just take them away from their homes, the places where they grew up, away from their property, their fields, their places of income. Even evacuating an area can have significant economic losses the longer it lasts (ignoring the obvious potential loss of life and damage to the economy through the eruption itself). To make things even more complicated, there's the famous "cry wolf" phenomenon. People tend to become less responsive to evacuation orders or instruction for precaution if they have experienced several scenarios in which no eruption occurred in the end. In other words, if you cry wolf too often nobody will believe you anymore.</div>
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We can see now that it's quite difficult to give good eruption forecasts. The volcanoes can give us hints, but ultimately we might never know for sure what's going to happen. As scientists, in many cases, we are advising decision makers from a purely scientific perspective with what we know about a volcano and its state. Ideally, there is a dialogue between scientists and decision makers, who will then have to take into account economic, psychological, and other considerations to make a call for evacuation or against it. In <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/indonesian-volcano-mount-sinabung-erupts-again-killing-14-death-toll-expected-to-rise/2014/02/01/607f1aa2-8b7f-11e3-a5bd-844629433ba3_story.html" target="_blank">Indonesia at Sinabung</a>, on Friday authorities decided to let people back into the area (but with a certain distance to the volcano) after 10s of thousands had been evacuated following eruptions in the previous weeks. Clearly they did not anticipate the eruption that happened just one day later. A fairly large eruption at <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-26013137" target="_blank">Tungurahua Volcano, Ecuador</a>, which also happened on Saturday, thankfully appears to have had a less fatal outcome than the one in Indonesia. In the end, the outcomes of an eruption depend on many factors. As scientists, we are doing our best to study the processes happening on volcanoes. We might not make huge leaps, but every project is a little step towards understanding our volcanic neighbours a little bit better, and maybe make forecasting a tiny bit more reliable.</div>
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<br />Katharina Unglerthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06321857721854778415noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5068944439887709976.post-80154789477003382852013-10-11T16:39:00.001-07:002014-02-03T20:03:46.704-08:00In which we get a mini update before I bury myself in silence againSo I'm really quite busy this fall trying to get a bunch of work done. Expect a more or less silent time until I have a life again in January... In the mean I will try to post a least some little snippets for entertainment.<br />
Number one: The Science news cycle! Almost in line with my last post about the Alaskan underground fire...<br />
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<br />Katharina Unglerthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06321857721854778415noreply@blogger.com0